These failures worsen other failures: if the authorities aren't seen as trustworthy (denying airborne transmission, for example), people end up seeking information on other things on their own, too, and everything gets confusing. People can fall prey to cranks and misinformation.
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I increasingly see people willing to believe things are so bad because this is a superzombieantigencalifragilisticexpialidocious virus, with extraordinary properties. Tragically, as
@michaelmina_lab says, it's a straightforward, almost textbook virus. The failure is the response.19 replies 212 retweets 1,072 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep @michaelmina_lab
I've probably missed it - is there a good piece explaining how any textbook Coronavirus that one encounters for the first time as an adult would lead to long-Covid, increased risk of liver-damage etc.?
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Replying to @justsomeoneDK @michaelmina_lab
A piece on that. A novel virus we encounter first time as adults is really dangerous, not necessarily because the virus has extraordinary properties compared with other viruses, but exactly because it is novel to our immune system. (Why vaccines work!)https://www.theinsight.org/p/novelty-means-severity-the-key-to …
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Replying to @zeynep @michaelmina_lab
That is a great piece, thank you, that I've read several times. It does not document that other Coronaviruses would lead to long-Covid. I guess I am asking too much, since that kind of evidence would be very difficult to establish.
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Replying to @justsomeoneDK @zeynep
It would be. One of the points I’ve tried to make many times is that what makes this virus special is more that it is infecting adults for their first time, not kids. We have evolved to deal w / learn pathogens safely as babies. But we are not evolved to do this as adults.
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Replying to @michaelmina_lab @zeynep
Again, I understand the essence of your argument, but I need more than your word for it. To compare, most people with insight into research design/stats can assess quality of vaccines, masks and follow discussions on viruses being airborne. In contrast, 1/2
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immune system is more complex. I can't read the theoretical arguments and confidently assess validity. Hence, when there is theoretical disagreement, I could rely on status - but authority figures have been wrong in the past. I'd need much more detail, and empirical evidence. 2/2
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Again, maybe I am asking for too much. The "Novelty means severity" piece is insightful, but it does not imply the same transparent and empirical line of evidence as vaccine efficacy or safety (see e.g. this excellent piece https://bostonreview.net/science-nature/andrew-l-croxford-long-term-safety-argument-over-covid-19-vaccines …). 3/2
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In other words, one could write a great piece on what kind of evidence we can expect on different kinds of (Covid) theoretical questions and policy issues.
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(I really like that piece by @andrew_croxford by the way). Long-term, as evidence: if we see a large wave of severe reinfections among the already-vaccinated or past-infected similar to immunologically-naive times. By every actual study in real life, no such thing yet whatsoever.
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Replying to @zeynep @justsomeoneDK and
Breakthroughs are happening for sure, and elderly experience immunosenescence, so this will be one more disease that especially endangers them. Right now, there are pockets of unvaccinated/uninfected almost everywhere—some larger. But especially given Delta, this phase will end.
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Replying to @zeynep @justsomeoneDK and
After that, we'll see severity in non-immunologically-naive population: a different ballgame, but similar to other post-pandemic eras. Likely >HCoVs (judging from breakthroughs but hard to tell yet) but maybe ~seasonal flu (why I think we should be aggressive about it).
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