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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 27 Sep 2021

      Do people know that the 1890 pandemic was likely caused by another coronavirus, OC43 (that was then novel?) Nowadays, no longer novel, it is one of the causes of the common cold. We're obviously not living in the OC43 pandemic since, and we won't live in a COVID pandemic forever.

      103 replies 542 retweets 2,757 likes
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    2. Peter Berghmans‏ @peter_berghmans 27 Sep 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      No one can predict how SARS-CoV-2 will evolve. What are your arguments to assume this virus will mutate into a common cold?

      13 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    3. Since 1883‏ @1883Of 27 Sep 2021
      Replying to @peter_berghmans @zeynep

      It's not a case of it mutating into a common cold, it's a case of it no longer being novel so has less and less effect on people over time, surely.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Kaitain Jones‏ @kaitainjones 2 Oct 2021
      Replying to @1883Of @peter_berghmans @zeynep

      Viruses generally undergo selection pressure to make them more infectious but less virulent. It does vary somewhat based on the pattern of infection.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Oct 2021
      Replying to @kaitainjones @1883Of @peter_berghmans

      Viruses aren’t necessarily under selection pressure to be less virulent (as long as they can keep transmitting). I highly recommend this piece why, all else equal, the first encounter can be more dangerous—hence novel virus emergence can spark pandemics.https://www.theinsight.org/p/novelty-means-severity-the-key-to …

      4:12 PM - 2 Oct 2021
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      • Anthony DiPierro
      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
        1. Kelly Wind‏ @kellywind 2 Oct 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @kaitainjones and

          The 2009 pandemic flu had a lower IFR than the seasonal H1N1 it bumped off the face of the earth. That essay gets a lot of things right, but he's totally missing antigenic imprinting/OAS & the role antigenic similarity can play in making infections more severe w/ a few diseases.

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