Do people know that the 1890 pandemic was likely caused by another coronavirus, OC43 (that was then novel?) Nowadays, no longer novel, it is one of the causes of the common cold. We're obviously not living in the OC43 pandemic since, and we won't live in a COVID pandemic forever.
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Replying to @zeynep
I think evidence for 1889-1890 pandemic being caused by OC43 is pretty dubious. There is good seroarchaeology evidence (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2557748/ …) that there was a flu pandemic (probably H3N8) in 1889-1890. In addition, ... (1/3)
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Replying to @jbloom_lab @zeynep
... after OC43 / 1889-90 idea started to gain popular press, I went back & read some historical accounts of 1889-90 pandemic (eg, https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1279164530 … & https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/3337889379 …). Drs were already quite familiar with influenza then, and they all thought 1889-90 was flu. (2/3)
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Replying to @jbloom_lab @zeynep
As far as I can tell, argument for 1889-90 being OC43 comes from one study that briefly does a molecular clock analysis that put divergence of OC43 and BCoV in late 1800s, and then popular media ran with it without much examination. (3/3)
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Replying to @jbloom_lab @zeynep
there's evidence showing adaptation of OC43 HE lectin activity to be less BCoV-like & more like HKU1 between historical HCoV-OC43 samples & now; i sadly lost the reference but it was out of one of
@raouljdegroot's talks... which would imply recent emergence as well imho.1 reply 3 retweets 5 likes -
Based on molecular clock analysis, the split between OC43 and BCoV was estimated to have occurred some 130 years ago but the MRCA of all extant OC43 strains ay have existed somewhere in the 1950's (Vijgen, 2006; Lau, 2011). The connection with the 1891 outbreak is tenuous.
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Replying to @raouljdegroot @wanderer_jasnah and
From our work on HE, I would argue OC43 indeed arose relatively recently. The data suggest an early split giving rise to two branches, each of which lost HE-mediated receptor-binding independently through accumulation of point mutations in the HE lectin domain (Bakkers CHM 2017).
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Replying to @raouljdegroot @wanderer_jasnah and
Btw: we followed up on that story with the cryo EM structure of HKU1 HE (Hurdiss, Nat. Com. 2020).
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ooh thank you this is *exactly* what i was looking for!
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Indeed thank you! This is the best/most fun part of Twitter.
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