In the UK, 90% of everyone over 16 has had at least one dose of a COVID vaccine and they had a Delta wave catching many of the unvaccinated. Trying to squint to understand why “it’s a mystery” for hospitalizations to go down even without huge restrictions.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/24/a-bit-of-a-mistery-why-england-covid-cases-are-going-down-despite-ease-of-restrictions …
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Not an expert, but I also feel like each outbreak has a random subset of the population that is more susceptible to it than average, and it burns through that subgroup faster than the rest and then drops.
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And initially, the main part of that group were the elderly.
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I did learn this week that they do not include reinfections in these numbers
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How is this even a question?!?!
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Individually yes. But what if vaccine-induced immunity, at a population-level, selects for more infectious variants?https://twitter.com/jessems/status/1442381269225062401 …
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I think more infectious variants are selected for even without vaccinations
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I think that it's not just the overall very high vaccination rates but the near total coverage of the older and more vulnerable. Something like 99 percent over 50.
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Yeah we need to flip to look at the percent of 65 plus people that are unprotected. US is about 15% and UK 3%. That's 5 times as many.
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People suck at math. If they have 97% over 65 vaccinated and US as 85% those look close. But flip them and it's 15% unprotected compared to 3%. Obviously you get roughly 5 times more hospitalized and dead.
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If you get a virus and survive, you have some natural immunity to that virus. That's how the complement system works. How long and what degree, hard to tell. Also, it should not be called immunity, should be called acquired pattern recognition or something like that.
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The new conceit is that “natural immunity is much much much stronger than vaccination, the Israeli study proved it beyond any shadow of a doubt so I don’t have to risk getting the vaccine.” A possibility true fact stretched as far as it can go. When pushed they trot out VAERS
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