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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Sep 2021

      Also: in 2020, we argued (often futilely) with public health authorities (see below) that WEARING MASKS WOULD LIKELY MAKE PEOPLE DISTANCE MORE RATHER THAN BECOME RECKLESS—a reason they cited for not recommending masks. This study *again* shows just that. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/23/business/media/how-zeynep-tufekci-keeps-getting-the-big-things-right.html …pic.twitter.com/qZzd9ZXhP0

      14 replies 44 retweets 363 likes
    2. Andre Infante‏ @AndreTI 2 Sep 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      In general, it feels like moral hazard arguments in this style are virtually never true. I can't think of a great example of the moral hazard effect being more significant than the first order effect.

      2 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Sep 2021
      Replying to @AndreTI

      Almost never, and almost never (none that I know of) for self-protective behaviors like this. But it's so popular as an idea with a lot of people in powerful policy positions, including (in my experience) many doctors, economists etc.

      1 reply 2 retweets 17 likes
    4. Jacy Reese Anthis‏Verified account @jacyanthis 2 Sep 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @AndreTI

      Scholars are bad at meso-synthesis. We somewhat rationally update on a single issue (e.g. mask evidence for mask policy) and very broad issues (e.g. loss aversion), but not meso-insights like "first order effects outweigh moral hazard in most contexts." We're stuck at intuition.

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
    5. Andre Infante‏ @AndreTI 2 Sep 2021
      Replying to @jacyanthis @zeynep

      There's also maybe a sophistication bias. Any idiot can notice that maybe breathing in fewer particles from infected exhalate reduces risk. It's obvious. You have to be an *expert* to be thinking about moral hazard effects.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    6. Andre Infante‏ @AndreTI 2 Sep 2021
      Replying to @AndreTI @jacyanthis @zeynep

      Sometimes elite errors just boil down to trying harder to be clever than right.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Sep 2021
      Replying to @AndreTI @jacyanthis

      A lot of that, for sure. For many questions of significance, the answer isn't that complicated, and the contrarian/counter-intuitive door is appealing but hollow.

      12:12 PM - 3 Sep 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • JustHereToRead Jacy Reese Anthis Andre Infante
      0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes

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