A very, very impressive cluster randomized trial. Very hard to do! See thread for findings.https://twitter.com/Jabaluck/status/1433036923610742789 …
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Replying to @zeynep
I also loved the use of (inaccurate) hypotheses by policymakers. Such a strong argument to actually run these trials, where human behavior and complex biological systems that are not well-approximated in a lab or in theory are paramount.
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Replying to @AaronRichterman
Yeah. I think that part may be the most important finding to be honest. The rest is incredible work, but the statistical power is weak and the controls are also (necessarily) very weak and then overdispersion plus ecological measures... (Still found an effect, wow!)
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Gazillion dollars keep getting spent because policymakers have little idea about humans and positive behavior, and also assume Hobbesian breakdown for negative behavior. And neither is really true when you actually get to study anything.
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