A very, very impressive cluster randomized trial. Very hard to do! See thread for findings.https://twitter.com/Jabaluck/status/1433036923610742789 …
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Do note that when you have a study design that really works against being able to detect an effect, the key interpretation is relative—within study. Don't read anyone who doesn't understand statistical power, cluster designs, overdispersion and the ethical limits of controls.
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Parts that surprised me: surgical masks retain filtration through many, many washing. Part that did not surprise me, almost nothing the (pre-polled) policy makers thought would work to nudge mask use higher worked. Policy folk and actual human behavior don't talk much, sadly.
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Part that doesn't surprise me: people who will conflate what a randomized cluster trial measuring an ecological effect in a real life setting with a randomized *clinical* trial (where we control everything and don't deal with overdispersion and only measure individual benefits).
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I'll try to write longer eventually, but just wanted to put it here. Any discussion you trust should mention measuring ecological effects in real life, cluster trials, overdispersion, limits to controls, statistical power and difference with clinical trials. Glib tweets won't do.
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Also congratulations to the authors. I honestly did not think they could pull this off, but they did an incredible job despite all the hurdles: unavoidable ones for statistical power, funding, ethical limits (which they respected, of course), and, wow, implementation! Amazing.
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