Agreed. Waiting to see this data, including symptom profile and how the population studied was selected. When 100s of millions are vaccinated, you can find every weird pattern of breakthrough clusters based on chance alone. They are hypothesis generating, need systematic data.https://twitter.com/JenniferNuzzo/status/1420374946723860489 …
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Replying to @AaronRichterman
We definitely need clear communication. This is so confusing.
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Replying to @zeynep
A simultaneous mmwr would have been very helpful to understand what we are even talking about
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Replying to @AaronRichterman
Yeah. I haven't been able to make sense of it, hoping for some clarity.
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Replying to @zeynep @AaronRichterman
Reverse engineering her statement: they have data showing 95% efficacy against hospitalization & deaths, and ~87.5% against symptomatic breakthrough for Delta. Which tracks with UK numbers. But the messaging about viral load/breakthrough among the vaccinated is confusing.pic.twitter.com/mH5kTDGH68
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Replying to @zeynep
Yeah. So far only a reference to a comparative study of Indian HCW showing CT 16 vs 19 in delta vs alpha *symptomatic* breakthrough. This does not strike me as categorically different, though yes would expect *some* increase in transmissibility among this small number of pplpic.twitter.com/thVLjI1Pos
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Replying to @AaronRichterman
So read the India HCW paper. It's isn't CTs/viral loads in vaccinated vs unvaccinated HCWs—it's CTs/viral loads by variant *among* vaccinated. No doubt some Delta breakthroughs transmit but this doesn't say unvaccinated indistinguishable from vaccinated.+ https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-637724/v1 …pic.twitter.com/xaeDZKgOhU
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Replying to @zeynep @AaronRichterman
So are we getting that claim only from the Ptown outbreak (and since the Singapore paper showing brief period among the vaccinated with lower CT values?). I keep thinking I must be missing a crucial study somewhere?
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Replying to @zeynep
Yes, Indian paper is vax’d (az) ancestral vs delta. Already know delta assoc w lower CT at dx in general, not surprising same true among breakthroughs. Other study is Wisconsin which has similar findings to ptown & also lacks underlying characteristicshttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v1 …
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Replying to @AaronRichterman
Again, I've no doubt some vaccinated Delta breakthroughs are transmitting but the Wisconsin paper has.. 17 vaccinated Delta breakthroughs total. Are these few people that got fairly ill, thus likely to get tested? What's their relationship to Delta breakthroughs in general?
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Seems fairly weak to hang the "vaccinated breakthroughs and unvaccinated infected individuals are indistinguishable in viral load" idea in general (though again, Delta sucks and I lean towards precaution but still wondering if that's all we got that's driving the news?)
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Replying to @zeynep
Aaron Richterman, MD Retweeted Aaron Richterman, MD
Oh yeah, totally agree. Would be shocked if breakthroughs tested in ptown and wisconsin weren't highly selected in ways that are hard to know given complete lack of other info. Singapore data more informative, but waiting for truly systematic samplinghttps://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1421550490832224257?s=20 …
Aaron Richterman, MD added,
Aaron Richterman, MD @AaronRichtermanThe question at hand: what is the relative transmission potential of a vaccinated person who becomes infected with delta? This
new report from Singapore is much more informative on this question than the CT data released so far from Ptown and Wisconsin.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1v …Show this thread0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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