I guess we'll all have to wait and see - but it's important to remember that a shift in probability outcomes certainly changes risk calculus, favors initial precaution. But it doesnt mean everything has changed, and analysis could be noisy in the beginning. End subtweet.
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Yeah, this is my stance too. It’s clear it can spread well even in the setting of high levels of population immunity. Need to figure out the details but the basic facts are bad.
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Epidemic dynamics are also hugely important in the CTs identified through passive surveillance
. These differences, which equate to less than one log viral load, could simply reflect a rising vs declining epidemic. @roby_bhatthttps://science.sciencemag.org/content/373/6552/eabh0635.full … - Show replies
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Delta was always bad news. But viral load data is worse news. It changes calculus a lot for vaccinated people.
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I was surprised that Delta has done to AR in 4 weeks what it has with 55-60% population immunity. I still think it is possible that the virus is raging in places that didn’t have much immunity but my initial thought was that the “immune” were passing it on based on growth rate.
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