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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Brian Wasik‏ @BrianRWasik 29 Jul 2021

      I guess we'll all have to wait and see - but it's important to remember that a shift in probability outcomes certainly changes risk calculus, favors initial precaution. But it doesnt mean everything has changed, and analysis could be noisy in the beginning. End subtweet.

      1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 Jul 2021
      Replying to @BrianRWasik

      Yes to wait and see, but also wary of selecting on the dependent variable but not being cognizant of it in analyses or communication. It’s fine it’s the data you have, and you know what you do have… and, more importantly, don’t. Confusion ahead.

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
    3. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 29 Jul 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @BrianRWasik

      Zoë McLaren, PhD Retweeted Zoë McLaren, PhD

      Universal masking may make sense as a precaution. But breakthrough viral load data is from one preprint.https://twitter.com/ZoeMcLaren/status/1420918962322292739 …

      Zoë McLaren, PhD added,

      Zoë McLaren, PhD @ZoeMcLaren
      Here is the slide from the CDC about higher viral loads among vaccinated Delta breakthrough infections. I need to see the study methodology to be able to gauge how likely it is this result holds up to scrutiny. pic.twitter.com/ijF9mS4cAA
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. Dr Ed‏ @notdred 29 Jul 2021
      Replying to @ZoeMcLaren @zeynep @BrianRWasik

      Their deck also includes unpublished Provincetown VL datapic.twitter.com/btkbg1mDXv

      3 replies 3 retweets 6 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 Jul 2021
      Replying to @notdred @ZoeMcLaren @BrianRWasik

      I don’t doubt Delta breakthroughs are transmitting, some, especially if symptomatic. This is from my piece last week. But what’s the denominator? Passive surveillance will lean towards sicker cases/clusters. What are we looking at overall?pic.twitter.com/5OCHNripGB

      6:58 PM - 29 Jul 2021
      • 17 Likes
      • Sulid Fan Account Wil Rogan Kevin Stewart CEO of good opinions f Steve Greene Greg Greene CARRIGG BRUNN alyce
      4 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
        1. flexo rodriguez‏ @43blah 29 Jul 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @notdred and

          The CDC estimated unobserved cases being something like 2.5 to 3 recorded cases last year. I think it makes sense the factor is higher now given increased transmission and vaccinations.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Brian Wasik‏ @BrianRWasik 29 Jul 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @notdred @ZoeMcLaren

          Yup. I think back to CDC (publicly) punting on following breakthroughs. It made sense with data at time and resources. But wish we set up some pilots. Now I worry about overcorrection as you say because we dont have a handle on the denominator. All those small cuts.

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
        3. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 29 Jul 2021
          Replying to @BrianRWasik @zeynep @notdred

          Excellent point. They’re making this decision on low quality data since they didn’t bother collecting their own.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 Jul 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @notdred and

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

          Also we stopped tracking breakthroughs unless hospitalized why? I was remembering the May conversations.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1394722401649299462 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
          Replying to @BillHanage
          Wait, what? That's, well, the "perfect" set up for nonstop freak-outs over breakthroughs that do not deserve panic (positive uncovered during mandatory/frequent testing in colleges/teams etc.) but also waiting till too late to recognize antigenic evolution of consequence?
          0 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
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        2. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 29 Jul 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @notdred @BrianRWasik

          Similar bias for alpha and delta cases in passive surveillance so difference in avg viral load is informative. Unless people more aware of breakthroughs with delta so get tested if symptomatic. My intuition is this is actually bad news about delta, even adjusting for issues.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 Jul 2021
          Replying to @ZoeMcLaren @notdred @BrianRWasik

          No they changed surveillance in May just as Delta was getting going so not comparable from what I can tell. That said, no doubt Delta is bad news. That’s been clear since May.

          2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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