10/ The lab-escape story depends wholly on a lot of deep and detailed knowledge across a number of domains: epidemiology, the dynamics of zoonosis, molecular biology in general and the highly subject-specific problems of lab work on any given organism...and more...
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11/ "Amateur epidemiologists" aren't qualified to have independent opinions across that spectrum. "Data guys" aren't. Philosophy Ph.D's-turned pundits aren't. Etc....
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Replying to @TomLevenson
Disagree. The politics matter. The history matters. Epidemiologists are divided. Significant number who signed March letter are rethinking. Pandemic has taught us that epidemiologists too can be wrong on fundamentals.
@zeynep &@RosenthalHealth are reliable sources in my book.2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
We will agree to disagree, then. Please see this for a very compelling take down on the chain of inferences that dominate lab-escape argumentation:https://newrepublic.com/article/162689/bats-covid-19-lab-leak-theory?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=EB_TNR&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1624975820 …
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Subhead raises a flag, though: bioengineered virus is only one lab possibility.
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a) subheds are not the story (and not written by the reporter). b) the story is clear: there's essentially no there there in the lab-escape, & especially in the engineered virus escape story. What frustrates me most RE
@zeynep's piece is that she almost did something really good.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
May I recommend this article with extensive quotes by Ralph Baric that explains the concerns fairly clearly, and be untagged? Thanks. https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/29/1027290/gain-of-function-risky-bat-virus-engineering-links-america-to-wuhan/ …pic.twitter.com/z0C6kgz2IB
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There is no law against using tighter lab security, however, and according to Baric, these viruses deserve it. “I would never argue that WIV1 or SHC014 should be studied at BSL-2, because they can grow in primary human cells”...
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“Let’s face it: there are going to be unknown viruses in guano, or oral swabs, which are oftentimes pooled. And if you’re attempting to culture a virus, you’re going to have novel strains being dropped onto culture cells,” Baric says. “Some will grow. You could get recombinants..
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And your or Baric's point is? I keep noticing how this case is being made by chains of inferences based on what-ifs. This is more of the same.
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Our point? Up to you to dismiss issues raised Dr. Baric—one of the most eminent bat coronavirus specialists in the world and a frequent collaborator of WIV as "what-ifs" you don't think are crucial. I'm comfortable about having raised the same issues myself before.
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I do not dismiss. I just note that every clause in that quote is a hypothetical, which is true for the entire lab-escape argument. I've yet to see a real weighing of lab-escape v. zoonosis in any major lab escape piece of journalism, and I'm deeply troubled by that.
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But why should articles detailing the reasons not to dismiss lab origin give odds? Most probably wouldn't place them as low as you do, but if they're substantial, they support a drive to a) demand more info and b) reassess lab risks.
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