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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Jun 2021

    Induction is a *great* method until it isn’t, and it is, structurally, more prone to breaking down for rare/tail events.

    5:45 AM - 24 Jun 2021
    • 9 Retweets
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    • Benoît Thieulin Never Again Means Something Sarah Lawrence Scott Michael Nielsen Everard Vanderplast Mo Zuchmir adijo.eth 🦇🔊 FVM John Morgan
    10 replies 9 retweets 92 likes
      1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Jun 2021

        (Adding to: exponential threats require a different approach; not using a conditional probability approach when it’s called for can be profoundly misleading; the denominator always matters; and null hypothesis has its uses but isn’t a good way to reason about many key questions.)

        3 replies 5 retweets 59 likes
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      1. George Purcell‏ @gpurcell 24 Jun 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        Ideally one iterates between induction and deduction. Had a class in this with a formal methodology I still use today from the professor who wrote this:https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/interactive-qualitative-analysis/book225983 …

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      2. Emre Alper‏ @EmreAlper_ 24 Jun 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        Russell’s Inductive Turkey: “The turkey found that, on his first morning at the turkey farm, he was fed at 9 a.m. Being a good inductivist turkey he did not jump to conclusions. He waited until he collected a large number of observations that he was fed at 9 a.m.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Emre Alper‏ @EmreAlper_ 24 Jun 2021
        Replying to @EmreAlper_ @zeynep

        and made these observations under a wide range of circumstances, on Wednesdays, on Thursdays, on cold days, on warm days. Each day he added another observation statement to his list.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. David Zande‏ @dmzande 24 Jun 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        Lol, I don't think I'm thinking of the right induction because I think a lot cook tops.

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Jun 2021
        Replying to @olivermorgans @nntaleb

        He does talk about tail risk often, which is great and very useful, but this isn't a secret at all, just often ignored, and — shocking, I know — I have points myself, too, occasionally.

        2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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      1. Aaron Stupple‏ @astupple 24 Jun 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        Induction is a myth. 😎 All observations need theory first. Only "a long chain of theoretical reasoning" advances knowledge.https://youtu.be/folTvNDL08A?t=425 …

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Peter Monnerjahn‏ @PeterMonnerjahn 24 Jun 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        Peter Monnerjahn Retweeted zeynep tufekci

        It’s actually even better: #induction *can’t ever* break down—bc it doesn’t work in the first place. 🙃 It’s a bit like #homeopathy: you think sth is working bc you’re seeing results, but they’re not due to what you think you did. #Science #Philosophyhttps://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1408043609245499393 …

        Peter Monnerjahn added,

        zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
        Induction is a *great* method until it isn’t, and it is, structurally, more prone to breaking down for rare/tail events.
        Show this thread
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      1. Nico‏ @nicoffx 24 Jun 2021
        Replying to @zeynep

        Induction is not a (working) scientific method. Follow the 🐇 (@DavidDeutschOxf and Karl Popper)

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