(Adding to: exponential threats require a different approach; not using a conditional probability approach when it’s called for can be profoundly misleading; the denominator always matters; and null hypothesis has its uses but isn’t a good way to reason about many key questions.)
-
-
Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Ideally one iterates between induction and deduction. Had a class in this with a formal methodology I still use today from the professor who wrote this:https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/interactive-qualitative-analysis/book225983 …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Russell’s Inductive Turkey: “The turkey found that, on his first morning at the turkey farm, he was fed at 9 a.m. Being a good inductivist turkey he did not jump to conclusions. He waited until he collected a large number of observations that he was fed at 9 a.m.
-
and made these observations under a wide range of circumstances, on Wednesdays, on Thursdays, on cold days, on warm days. Each day he added another observation statement to his list.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
Lol, I don't think I'm thinking of the right induction because I think a lot cook tops.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
He does talk about tail risk often, which is great and very useful, but this isn't a secret at all, just often ignored, and — shocking, I know — I have points myself, too, occasionally.
- Show replies
-
-
-
Induction is a myth.
All observations need theory first.
Only "a long chain of theoretical reasoning" advances knowledge.https://youtu.be/folTvNDL08A?t=425 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
It’s actually even better:
#induction *can’t ever* break down—bc it doesn’t work in the first place.
It’s a bit like #homeopathy: you think sth is working bc you’re seeing results, but they’re not due to what you think you did.#Science#Philosophyhttps://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1408043609245499393 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Induction is not a (working) scientific method. Follow the
(@DavidDeutschOxf and Karl Popper)Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.