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Also, interesting week to have written this in my newsletter. The seafood market as an amplifying event (first big outbreak) with virus circulation earlier in Wuhan has always been possible from what data we did have (even with the Lancet/WHO confusion). https://www.theinsight.org/p/bring-back-the-weekly-newspaper …pic.twitter.com/XKQjlIKgVQ
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And this is how it would unfold, next, in some parts of the world... (Sorry, sorry, gallows humor. Middle Eastern thing).https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1407535307755511808 …
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Addendum to the deleted sequences. And see up thread on why the "it's all just crude, knee-jerk censorship" assertions aren't very smart. Some steps may be so, but clearly other targeted, deliberate steps are taken, too. Analysis of specifics>generalities.https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1407542297659514886 …
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This was all reported by the SCMP (lol)
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Curious to see what happens after the following is peer reviewedhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v1 …
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That depends crucially on the quality of the PCR assays then in use.
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False positives (base rate fallacy)?
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Maybe I am missing something, but isn't it possible the three excluded cases were part of the "59 initially suspected cases" and not a subset of the 41 confirmed cases by PCR?
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Then where are they in the WHO report? There were multiple cases all *PCR-confirmed*, as per Lancet article, before the first-known seafood market linked case. Now they aren’t included. We then have WHO report talking about clinically excluded cases. I couldn’t make sense of it.
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