This is subtle, but important. Vaccination patterns changes conditional probabilities. In the UK, the people most prone to succumb to COVID, even if vaccinated, or even to common cold—yes, common colds can be fatal to the elderly—are the very people most likely to be vaccinated. https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403984975788228611 …
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted
There's also this. As a population gets vaccinated, the denominator is changing. https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1393249536932339717 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Exponentials, conditional probabilities and shifting denominators are kinda counterintuitive to grasp, but but epidemics and vaccination campaigns through an ongoing epidemic really need all three to wrap one's mind around where we are.
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Still, delta is the worst we've seen. If you notice my other thread. I'm still unable to find a way to disbelieve the numbers that are now coming out of India, as per excess deaths. Both transmissibility and severity look much higher. But the great threat is to the unvaccinated.
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Replying to @ElleMandell
Okay, so people in rural India changed their behavior so much that they have 42x their regular excess deaths in a single month, happens to coincide with the rise of this variant that does that elsewhere, magically dominate exactly when people drastically change their behavior.
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Replying to @zeynep @ElleMandell
Totally convinced, someone can also say correlation isn't causation and we can call it a day here.
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Are you serious? We already had two separate studies from UK, and the Scotland one is already out as Lancet paper. (Even if you ignore India).https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext …
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Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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