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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      This is subtle, but important. Vaccination patterns changes conditional probabilities. In the UK, the people most prone to succumb to COVID, even if vaccinated, or even to common cold—yes, common colds can be fatal to the elderly—are the very people most likely to be vaccinated. https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403984975788228611 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

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      8 replies 81 retweets 335 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      There's also this. As a population gets vaccinated, the denominator is changing. https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1393249536932339717 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

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      1 reply 20 retweets 135 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

      Exponentials, conditional probabilities and shifting denominators are kinda counterintuitive to grasp, but but epidemics and vaccination campaigns through an ongoing epidemic really need all three to wrap one's mind around where we are.

      3 replies 10 retweets 122 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

      Still, delta is the worst we've seen. If you notice my other thread. I'm still unable to find a way to disbelieve the numbers that are now coming out of India, as per excess deaths. Both transmissibility and severity look much higher. But the great threat is to the unvaccinated.

      10 replies 31 retweets 184 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021
      Replying to @ElleMandell

      Okay, so people in rural India changed their behavior so much that they have 42x their regular excess deaths in a single month, happens to coincide with the rise of this variant that does that elsewhere, magically dominate exactly when people drastically change their behavior.

      4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @ElleMandell

      Totally convinced, someone can also say correlation isn't causation and we can call it a day here.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Frank‏ @realMrFrank 13 Jun 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @ElleMandell

      Did all the B117 predictions of increased severity and transmission based on SAGE data pan out? Most of the US never saw a big wave caused by it that many prominent voices (e.g. Osterholm) were predicting and I think findings on severity remain mixed? This time it’s different.

      4 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    9. David Ridley‏ @RidleyDM 13 Jun 2021
      Replying to @realMrFrank @zeynep @ElleMandell

      Many, myself included, predicted that vaccination would beat out B.1.1.7 in most of the US even with higher transmissibility. That appears to be what happened. It outcompeted WT but vaccines (with a dose of seasonality) outcompeted it.

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021
      Replying to @RidleyDM @ElleMandell

      Yep, pretty much. Barely, though! You could see the stall.

      11:22 PM - 13 Jun 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • arm and hammer and dance David Ridley
      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Frank‏ @realMrFrank 13 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @RidleyDM @ElleMandell

          Are you referring to Michigan? I can’t see a stall in the biggest states, for example.pic.twitter.com/I5VZJIuaaA

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Frank‏ @realMrFrank 13 Jun 2021
          Replying to @realMrFrank @zeynep and

          And TX has been open since March, so it’s unclear how B117’s increased transmission potential was beaten by a vaccine campaign that had just started then?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. qousqous‏ @qousqous 14 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @RidleyDM @ElleMandell

          And if you compare the US to Canada, Canada was a few weeks behind the US in vaccinations, and had a huge third wave in the spring when Alpha and Gamma hit. Fortunately, enough of the elderly and vulnerable were vaccinated that that resulted only in a modest increase in deaths.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. BOUTROS ⽊‏ @boutros555 15 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @RidleyDM @ElleMandell

          We can't just assume the stall (or rise in Michigan's case) in cases was due to the variants. Remember, TX & FL had high incidences of Alpha at the same time as Michigan and their numbers continued to decline. We have to be careful about making strong conclusions here.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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