This is subtle, but important. Vaccination patterns changes conditional probabilities. In the UK, the people most prone to succumb to COVID, even if vaccinated, or even to common cold—yes, common colds can be fatal to the elderly—are the very people most likely to be vaccinated. https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403984975788228611 …
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Are you referring to Michigan? I can’t see a stall in the biggest states, for example.pic.twitter.com/I5VZJIuaaA
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And TX has been open since March, so it’s unclear how B117’s increased transmission potential was beaten by a vaccine campaign that had just started then?
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And if you compare the US to Canada, Canada was a few weeks behind the US in vaccinations, and had a huge third wave in the spring when Alpha and Gamma hit. Fortunately, enough of the elderly and vulnerable were vaccinated that that resulted only in a modest increase in deaths.
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We can't just assume the stall (or rise in Michigan's case) in cases was due to the variants. Remember, TX & FL had high incidences of Alpha at the same time as Michigan and their numbers continued to decline. We have to be careful about making strong conclusions here.
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