This is subtle, but important. Vaccination patterns changes conditional probabilities. In the UK, the people most prone to succumb to COVID, even if vaccinated, or even to common cold—yes, common colds can be fatal to the elderly—are the very people most likely to be vaccinated. https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403984975788228611 …
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted
There's also this. As a population gets vaccinated, the denominator is changing. https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1393249536932339717 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Exponentials, conditional probabilities and shifting denominators are kinda counterintuitive to grasp, but but epidemics and vaccination campaigns through an ongoing epidemic really need all three to wrap one's mind around where we are.
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Still, delta is the worst we've seen. If you notice my other thread. I'm still unable to find a way to disbelieve the numbers that are now coming out of India, as per excess deaths. Both transmissibility and severity look much higher. But the great threat is to the unvaccinated.
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Replying to @ElleMandell
Okay, so people in rural India changed their behavior so much that they have 42x their regular excess deaths in a single month, happens to coincide with the rise of this variant that does that elsewhere, magically dominate exactly when people drastically change their behavior.
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Replying to @zeynep @ElleMandell
Totally convinced, someone can also say correlation isn't causation and we can call it a day here.
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Replying to @zeynep @ElleMandell
Did all the B117 predictions of increased severity and transmission based on SAGE data pan out? Most of the US never saw a big wave caused by it that many prominent voices (e.g. Osterholm) were predicting and I think findings on severity remain mixed? This time it’s different.
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Replying to @realMrFrank @ElleMandell
Yes, they did. US had a massive vaccination campaign that held it at bay, but even then we saw the stall from B117, and it caused massive outbreaks in many places, causing more deaths than the first wave. Not sure how much clearer the data could get, though delta is even clearer.
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Manaus reinfections weren't at thing because there was no random serosurvey as baseline--just a very skewed one from likely positive people. Not all claims are equally established. The transmissibility of alpha and delta were.
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