This is subtle, but important. Vaccination patterns changes conditional probabilities. In the UK, the people most prone to succumb to COVID, even if vaccinated, or even to common cold—yes, common colds can be fatal to the elderly—are the very people most likely to be vaccinated. https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403984975788228611 …
Totally convinced, someone can also say correlation isn't causation and we can call it a day here.
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Did all the B117 predictions of increased severity and transmission based on SAGE data pan out? Most of the US never saw a big wave caused by it that many prominent voices (e.g. Osterholm) were predicting and I think findings on severity remain mixed? This time it’s different.
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And as with delta in India lately, immune-evading P1 was supposed to have caused the horrible surge in Brazil (Manaus reinfections!!!!) that also never seemed to materialize much in the US? But this time it’s different.
End of conversation
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