This is subtle, but important. Vaccination patterns changes conditional probabilities. In the UK, the people most prone to succumb to COVID, even if vaccinated, or even to common cold—yes, common colds can be fatal to the elderly—are the very people most likely to be vaccinated. https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403984975788228611 …
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Totally convinced, someone can also say correlation isn't causation and we can call it a day here.
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Did all the B117 predictions of increased severity and transmission based on SAGE data pan out? Most of the US never saw a big wave caused by it that many prominent voices (e.g. Osterholm) were predicting and I think findings on severity remain mixed? This time it’s different.
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Zeynep, the 42X you're citing is 42 times the official Covid death count for Madhya Pradesh, not 42 times their regular excess deaths. That figure would be 3X. That isn't unprecedented for Covid of any strain. Bergamo was over 8X their regular excess deaths for March 2020.
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You’re talking about 1. A country of over a billion people and 2. 27,000 people die a day in India on a regular day of you actually believe it was 42X higher, you’re only fooling yourself.
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Isn't "excess death" by definition irregular? I'm not try to be glib here, but I do want to understand the data you're referring to.
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Exactly. What is "regular excess death"? Going off memory India's 5yr avg death rate equates to 27-29k deaths a month. You're not implying 1.2M deaths in a month are you? If not, what's the baseline for the 42x multiplier? This needs clarification.
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