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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      This is subtle, but important. Vaccination patterns changes conditional probabilities. In the UK, the people most prone to succumb to COVID, even if vaccinated, or even to common cold—yes, common colds can be fatal to the elderly—are the very people most likely to be vaccinated. https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403984975788228611 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

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      8 replies 81 retweets 335 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      There's also this. As a population gets vaccinated, the denominator is changing. https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1393249536932339717 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

      Exponentials, conditional probabilities and shifting denominators are kinda counterintuitive to grasp, but but epidemics and vaccination campaigns through an ongoing epidemic really need all three to wrap one's mind around where we are.

      3 replies 10 retweets 122 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

      Still, delta is the worst we've seen. If you notice my other thread. I'm still unable to find a way to disbelieve the numbers that are now coming out of India, as per excess deaths. Both transmissibility and severity look much higher. But the great threat is to the unvaccinated.

      10 replies 31 retweets 184 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021
      Replying to @ElleMandell

      Okay, so people in rural India changed their behavior so much that they have 42x their regular excess deaths in a single month, happens to coincide with the rise of this variant that does that elsewhere, magically dominate exactly when people drastically change their behavior.

      11:02 PM - 13 Jun 2021
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      • wombot 👀 cmmcd 🇺🇸
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        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @ElleMandell

          Totally convinced, someone can also say correlation isn't causation and we can call it a day here.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Frank‏ @realMrFrank 13 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @ElleMandell

          Did all the B117 predictions of increased severity and transmission based on SAGE data pan out? Most of the US never saw a big wave caused by it that many prominent voices (e.g. Osterholm) were predicting and I think findings on severity remain mixed? This time it’s different.

          4 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        1. Alex Bussani‏ @alexbussani 13 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @ElleMandell

          Zeynep, the 42X you're citing is 42 times the official Covid death count for Madhya Pradesh, not 42 times their regular excess deaths. That figure would be 3X. That isn't unprecedented for Covid of any strain. Bergamo was over 8X their regular excess deaths for March 2020.

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        1. Pajamas It Is‏ @HeckofaLiberal 14 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @ElleMandell

          You’re talking about 1. A country of over a billion people and 2. 27,000 people die a day in India on a regular day of you actually believe it was 42X higher, you’re only fooling yourself.

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        2. BOUTROS ⽊‏ @boutros555 15 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @ElleMandell

          Isn't "excess death" by definition irregular? I'm not try to be glib here, but I do want to understand the data you're referring to.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. M_P‏ @Reroot_Flyover 15 Jun 2021
          Replying to @boutros555 @zeynep @ElleMandell

          Exactly. What is "regular excess death"? Going off memory India's 5yr avg death rate equates to 27-29k deaths a month. You're not implying 1.2M deaths in a month are you? If not, what's the baseline for the 42x multiplier? This needs clarification.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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