This is subtle, but important. Vaccination patterns changes conditional probabilities. In the UK, the people most prone to succumb to COVID, even if vaccinated, or even to common cold—yes, common colds can be fatal to the elderly—are the very people most likely to be vaccinated. https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403984975788228611 …
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Also true. I hope Delta is all over the place already in the United States—it would mean we have less room to have worse things happen. (Unvaccinated regions/people remain at risk, and they will face a more severe disease).https://twitter.com/CohoKelly/status/1404299012098998275 …
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Hard to see how it will be much different from when B117 became dominant. Only Michigan had a wave from it. Places with pockets of not fully vaccinated or low seroprevalence could spike up, but we won't have a national wave
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I’ve seen the information about how the Pfizer may protect against Delta. What about the J&J?
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“But the great threat is to the unvaccinated.” — qualify that with the “greatest” threat… now numerous cases here in Nepal of vaccinated or partially vaccinated people becoming infected, plus reinfections. I have no data, this is simply amongst people I know & know of.
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How shld ppl w/o good vax weigh risk? High-risk mom in Iran IR just OK'd vax w/*no human trial data* How to weigh Cov high risk v IR vax unknown risk? 1) Get IR vax but assume low efficacy? 2) Skip IR vax, fly w/N95 to fam in Canada, get Pfizer? Or Cov risk of trip too high?
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The real question now is, do vaccinated people still have a risk returned to baseline?
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India had a countrywide religious festival in April which turned into a gigantic superspreader event. Hajj at the end of July could turn into a similar disaster for the Middle East but the rest of the world is most likely not at risk of such overnight COVID explosion.
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Worst as far as hysteria maybe. India is done and UK isn’t seeing huge deaths.pic.twitter.com/euqk7ige3z
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This is dishonest. India deaths per 100,000 is much lower than everywhere else. Why dont you print that?
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