It's now more plausible that, without an immediate and massive campaign to increase vaccine supply and speed up distribution, we'll end up with more deaths from COVID after we had vaccines that could prevent them. A repeat of sorts of the AIDS catastrophe.https://twitter.com/PaulSaxMD/status/1398418667935879171 …
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Adding. I think the evidence for increased transmissibility of B.117 (alpha) was solid, now some evidence supporting that it was *also* more severe compared to wild type. Delta is almost certainly way more transmissible than even alpha *and* more severe.https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1404778318436646912?s=20 …
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We don't have a year to sloowly vaccinate the world, folks. I'm not worried about the vaccinated, but I'm pained watching countries with abundant vaccines debate this or that vaccine, or even breakthrough rates, when we have *billions* without access to even a single shot of any.
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I have friends and family all over the world, and I told all of them: take whatever you get the moment it's offered. That shot is the biggest line between you and death/severe illness. There much more to this, obviously, and increasing supply is key. But that line is very real.
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Yes, ideally, we increase supply of the highest efficacy ones. Maybe AZ prime/mRNA booster can be considered, as
@dylanhmorris was pointing out—fits the shape of the supply better. Maybe subunit ones are easier to scale up production. But this is key: time is of the essence here.Show this thread -
I’ll repeat what I wrote last month in the context of my oped warning about the Delta variant: The pandemic will end, now sooner because of it, with billions becoming exposed to this virus via infection or vaccination. We have an urgent moral responsibility to make it the latter.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1398266149532573705 …
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Ivermectin, ivermectin, ivermectin.
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“During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, misinformation was widely spread claiming that ivermectin was beneficial for treating and preventing COVID-19.[14][15] Such claims are not backed by good evidence.[16][17][18][19]”https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermectin
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Hi Zeynep, few things on these numbers: 1. Given the worst affected places outside India (e.g. Peru) have excess mortality ~6000/million and we know that for a world average population the IFR is sub 1% a 2000-3000/million excess mort shock is mindboggling and suggests a ....
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..severe constraint in the medical system leading to many marginal cases not being saved and other non-Covid deaths also rising. 2. We have a few pointers as to what the spread Vs fatality could be - UK peak to trough fatality/hosp ratio before the vaccines kicked in was....
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Worried about DR Congo - Median age = 17, only 3% 65+ - One of the highest cases recently (very limited testing) & hospitals overwhelmed in Kinshasa, the most populous African city https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/congo-president-says-kinshasa-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-2021-06-12/ … - Delta variant ravaging https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-first-found-in-india-is-quickly-spreading-across-globe-11623257849 …https://twitter.com/peterhotez/status/1400570943395749890 …
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