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zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Jun 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Paul Sax

      It's now more plausible that, without an immediate and massive campaign to increase vaccine supply and speed up distribution, we'll end up with more deaths from COVID after we had vaccines that could prevent them. A repeat of sorts of the AIDS catastrophe.https://twitter.com/PaulSaxMD/status/1398418667935879171 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Paul SaxVerified account @PaulSaxMD
      The analogy here with HIV by @zeynep is quite compelling -- specifically that most HIV-related deaths occurred *after* we had effective ART. The same might be true about Covid and effective vaccines, unless distribution rapidly improves. https://www.theinsight.org/p/we-need-to-get-real-about-how-the?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxOTY2MTIxLCJwb3N0X2lkIjozNjk1MzQ5OCwiXyI6ImlLeHJaIiwiaWF0IjoxNjIyMjQzNzU1LCJleHAiOjE2MjIyNDczNTUsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0xMTg0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.S1IzDV35qF9HgtPhsTI31d11ze0mxQ-TCQSk95142Vc …
      8 replies 66 retweets 195 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Jun 2021

      The White House just announced a donation of money and vaccine sharing with COVAX, the global program headed by WHO. That's great but WE NEED MORE VACCINES and thus we need to work to increase the supply ASAP. Money can't buy vaccines which don't exist. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/03/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-global-vaccine-distribution/ …pic.twitter.com/Dtej7WWcIQ

      5 replies 43 retweets 131 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Jun 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Noah Weiland

      Let me be honest. The sentiment is nice, but there is little chance that billions will be able to avoid getting infected FOR EVEN ANOTHER YEAR, let alone two, while waiting for vaccines. Increasing the supply NOW is the key. Otherwise, the pandemic will end, but with more deaths.https://twitter.com/noahweiland/status/1402685889835307014 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Noah WeilandVerified account @noahweiland
      The Biden administration plans to send 500 million doses of Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine to other countries over the next two years w/ @SharonLNYT @SherylNYT https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/09/us/politics/biden-global-vaccine-plan.html …
      4 replies 80 retweets 284 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Jun 2021

      Extra money to incentivize supply ramp up is fine but I’m not sure that incentive is lacking. What we need is for vaccine production capable countries to come together and decide *that facility* there is now going to produce *this* vaccine, conversion work starting 7am tomorrow.

      3 replies 35 retweets 159 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Jun 2021

      Without a concrete plan on exactly *how* that supply will increase asap, all we have is thoughts and prayers and some cash, nice but not the real bottleneck. Patent waivers are fine, but nowhere near enough. No croissant recipe will allow me to mass produce croissants tomorrow.

      2 replies 25 retweets 125 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Jun 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted ~ esperanza ~

      Take over whatever capacity we can, convert what we can, build what we can. More money at the problem is fine but without the first part, it can’t solve the supply problem quickly which is what we need.https://twitter.com/TeachEsp/status/1402692048415649792 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      ~ esperanza ~ @TeachEsp
      Replying to @zeynep @ParkerMolloy
      They already committed to waiving the patents and sent a ton of materials/aid to other countries to increase development of vaccines. What else can they realistically do for other sovereign countries? https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/05/05/biden-waives-vaccine-patents/ …
      8 replies 9 retweets 85 likes
      Show this thread
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Jun 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted James E. Baldwin

      Yes. That’s the idea. Vaccine production is not easy and cannot be done by just turning over patents. Extra money at the problem is great but we need an active mobilization which means leadership and yes, governments cutting those deals to convert and add facilities. Now.https://twitter.com/james_e_baldwin/status/1402694624494424065 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      James E. Baldwin @james_e_baldwin
      Replying to @TeachEsp @zeynep @ParkerMolloy
      Obviously it's not a direct analogy, but during WW2 the USA requisitioned much of its private manufacturing manufacturing capacity to produce weapons and vehicles for Britain and the USSR. I'm theory there's way more they could do
      5 replies 30 retweets 164 likes
      Show this thread
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Jun 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      Adding these statistics from India here. If they hold up—and they do look like they will but do note that I just can't wrap my head around it—the implications are truly catastrophic for countries with little vaccination and no prior huge outbreaks.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1403828841378992130 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      I don't know how to wrap my head around this. As @covidserology puts it, it would mean ~2000 deaths per million in a rural state with a median age of 23, in JUST TWO MONTHS. About 170,000 excess deaths, over two months. Even if not all from COVID, this is a catastrophic picture. https://twitter.com/Rukmini/status/1403563967172153344 …
      Show this thread
      7 replies 36 retweets 115 likes
      Show this thread
    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

      Another state from India reports ~3000 per million excess deaths IN JUST ONE MONTH. This is catastrophic. Look, there just is not another whole year to vaccinate remaining vulnerable countries. For billions, it may be infection or vaccination, and soon. https://scroll.in/article/997427/andhra-pradesh-saw-400-increase-in-deaths-in-may-tamil-nadu-saw-more-modest-excess-mortality …pic.twitter.com/Y8UIZ4J57S

      2 replies 70 retweets 155 likes
      Show this thread
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

      Median age of Andhra Pradesh is 27, bit older than Madhya Pradesh, so it tracks that the death rate is slightly higher. There's some weirdness around Delta's diffusion which gives me hope that something we don't yet know may help spare other countries, BUT WE CAN'T COUNT ON THAT.

      4 replies 11 retweets 65 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

      COVID-19 may not go away, but the pandemic will end. If we don't vaccinate billions soon, which means governments intervening to help scale up production by any means necessary, now, it may well end by it sweeping through places with little prior immunity at a great human cost.

      9:20 AM - 13 Jun 2021
      • 47 Retweets
      • 157 Likes
      • Fakir Ymm Survivor Andrew Draper Jami Sonali💜 Héctor Guiliani Cury bowerbird ProfessionalShitpoaster
      7 replies 47 retweets 157 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Jun 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted The BMJ

          Adding. I think the evidence for increased transmissibility of B.117 (alpha) was solid, now some evidence supporting that it was *also* more severe compared to wild type. Delta is almost certainly way more transmissible than even alpha *and* more severe.https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1404778318436646912?s=20 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          The BMJVerified account @bmj_latest
          The results of this new study suggest that the risk of hospital admission is higher for people infected with the B.1.1.7 variant compared with wild-type SARS-CoV-2, likely reflecting a more severe disease @DrTommyNyberg http://ow.ly/mzsu50FaBDB 
          2 replies 18 retweets 56 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Jun 2021

          We don't have a year to sloowly vaccinate the world, folks. I'm not worried about the vaccinated, but I'm pained watching countries with abundant vaccines debate this or that vaccine, or even breakthrough rates, when we have *billions* without access to even a single shot of any.

          8 replies 78 retweets 253 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Jun 2021

          I have friends and family all over the world, and I told all of them: take whatever you get the moment it's offered. That shot is the biggest line between you and death/severe illness. There much more to this, obviously, and increasing supply is key. But that line is very real.

          7 replies 27 retweets 190 likes
          Show this thread
        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Jun 2021

          Yes, ideally, we increase supply of the highest efficacy ones. Maybe AZ prime/mRNA booster can be considered, as @dylanhmorris was pointing out—fits the shape of the supply better. Maybe subunit ones are easier to scale up production. But this is key: time is of the essence here.

          3 replies 7 retweets 84 likes
          Show this thread
        6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Jun 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

          I’ll repeat what I wrote last month in the context of my oped warning about the Delta variant: The pandemic will end, now sooner because of it, with billions becoming exposed to this virus via infection or vaccination. We have an urgent moral responsibility to make it the latter.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1398266149532573705 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
          Here's the real talk: all pandemics end. For this one, we have a choice of how it ends, for billions: infection or vaccination. It's that simple, unfortunately. The idea we can slooooooowly get to vaccinating people while they all somehow avoid infection for years is not tenable.
          Show this thread
          8 replies 53 retweets 158 likes
          Show this thread
        7. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Rosemary Kirincic‏ @Galileoglowing 13 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Ivermectin, ivermectin, ivermectin.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Dave Clark‏ @realdaveclark6 13 Jun 2021
          Replying to @Galileoglowing @zeynep

          “During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, misinformation was widely spread claiming that ivermectin was beneficial for treating and preventing COVID-19.[14][15] Such claims are not backed by good evidence.[16][17][18][19]”https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermectin 

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Ritwik Priya‏ @ritwik_priya 13 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Hi Zeynep, few things on these numbers: 1. Given the worst affected places outside India (e.g. Peru) have excess mortality ~6000/million and we know that for a world average population the IFR is sub 1% a 2000-3000/million excess mort shock is mindboggling and suggests a ....

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Ritwik Priya‏ @ritwik_priya 13 Jun 2021
          Replying to @ritwik_priya @zeynep

          ..severe constraint in the medical system leading to many marginal cases not being saved and other non-Covid deaths also rising. 2. We have a few pointers as to what the spread Vs fatality could be - UK peak to trough fatality/hosp ratio before the vaccines kicked in was....

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Shu Uesugi‏ @chibicode 13 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Shu Uesugi Retweeted Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD

          Worried about DR Congo - Median age = 17, only 3% 65+ - One of the highest cases recently (very limited testing) & hospitals overwhelmed in Kinshasa, the most populous African city https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/congo-president-says-kinshasa-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-2021-06-12/ … - Delta variant ravaging https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-first-found-in-india-is-quickly-spreading-across-globe-11623257849 …https://twitter.com/peterhotez/status/1400570943395749890 …

          Shu Uesugi added,

          Prof Peter Hotez MD PhDVerified account @PeterHotez
          I'm very concerned... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/03/exponential-rise-in-covid-cases-in-drc-capital-reports-who …
          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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