If we can make billions of doses of mRNA vaccines, let's go. If the choice is none vs any vaccine, real life data says *any* vaccine will help prevent deaths. I'm not advocating for a singular path. WHATEVER WE CAN DO AS FAST AS POSSIBLE. That is our global moral responsibility.
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Another state from India reports ~3000 per million excess deaths IN JUST ONE MONTH. This is catastrophic. Look, there just is not another whole year to vaccinate remaining vulnerable countries. For billions, it may be infection or vaccination, and soon. https://scroll.in/article/997427/andhra-pradesh-saw-400-increase-in-deaths-in-may-tamil-nadu-saw-more-modest-excess-mortality …pic.twitter.com/Y8UIZ4J57S
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Median age of Andhra Pradesh is 27, bit older than Madhya Pradesh, so it tracks that the death rate is slightly higher. There's some weirdness around Delta's diffusion which gives me hope that something we don't yet know may help spare other countries, BUT WE CAN'T COUNT ON THAT.
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COVID-19 may not go away, but the pandemic will end. If we don't vaccinate billions soon, which means governments intervening to help scale up production by any means necessary, now, it may well end by it sweeping through places with little prior immunity at a great human cost.
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Adding. I think the evidence for increased transmissibility of B.117 (alpha) was solid, now some evidence supporting that it was *also* more severe compared to wild type. Delta is almost certainly way more transmissible than even alpha *and* more severe.https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1404778318436646912?s=20 …
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We don't have a year to sloowly vaccinate the world, folks. I'm not worried about the vaccinated, but I'm pained watching countries with abundant vaccines debate this or that vaccine, or even breakthrough rates, when we have *billions* without access to even a single shot of any.
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I have friends and family all over the world, and I told all of them: take whatever you get the moment it's offered. That shot is the biggest line between you and death/severe illness. There much more to this, obviously, and increasing supply is key. But that line is very real.
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Yes, ideally, we increase supply of the highest efficacy ones. Maybe AZ prime/mRNA booster can be considered, as
@dylanhmorris was pointing out—fits the shape of the supply better. Maybe subunit ones are easier to scale up production. But this is key: time is of the essence here.Show this thread -
I’ll repeat what I wrote last month in the context of my oped warning about the Delta variant: The pandemic will end, now sooner because of it, with billions becoming exposed to this virus via infection or vaccination. We have an urgent moral responsibility to make it the latter.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1398266149532573705 …
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End of conversation
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If you haven't already Zeynep, I recommend checking out Murad's analysis of Indian covid data. He has been my goto source this year, while I still have family and friends in India, I've been away way too long, I don't trust my own instincts and opinions.https://twitter.com/muradbanaji/status/1390670543528075267 …
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Terrible news for the unvaccinated and for countries without prior big outbreaks or mass vaccination. We must do everything we can—immediately—to speed up vaccination.