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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Jun 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Rukmini S

      I don't know how to wrap my head around this. As @covidserology puts it, it would mean ~2000 deaths per million in a rural state with a median age of 23, in JUST TWO MONTHS. About 170,000 excess deaths, over two months. Even if not all from COVID, this is a catastrophic picture.https://twitter.com/Rukmini/status/1403563967172153344 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Rukmini SVerified account @Rukmini
      Officially, Madhya Pradesh reported just 4,461 Covid deaths between January 1 and May 31 2021. The excess deaths seen in the same period are over 42 times the reported Covid death toll, though the entire excess death toll is not attributable to Covid. pic.twitter.com/Mmgj7LYya6
      Show this thread
      20 replies 215 retweets 515 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Jun 2021

      I don't understand the number, honestly. This is the population pyramid for Madhya Pradesh. That many excess deaths in just two months is hard to make sense of. I hope we eventually learn what happened. (I am not making any claims; I don't understand it).pic.twitter.com/vKzSdHtH8E

      2:45 PM - 12 Jun 2021
      • 14 Retweets
      • 136 Likes
      • Nora Rawn ⚪️🦚 davepermen 🌈💉💉💉💉 Matthias Meier 💉💉💉💉 - Gigavaxx GeorgeWilliamHerbert Jennifer Dugan Jan SMH Harper David Baker Myrrh
      14 replies 14 retweets 136 likes
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Jun 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Rukmini S

          Looking at this, it doesn't seem plausible that they just have haphazard statistics. Every other year/month aligns. Again, a rural state (less than third live in cities) and median age is around 23. High R *and* more severity *and* little/no medical care?https://twitter.com/Rukmini/status/1403562991610519557 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Rukmini SVerified account @Rukmini
          I wrote about it for @scroll_in here: https://scroll.in/article/996772/madhya-pradesh-saw-nearly-three-times-more-deaths-than-normal-after-second-wave-of-covid-19-struck … This chart is all-cause mortality (Civil Registration Data) for every month since January 2018, and you don't need me to point out that May 2021 was record-breaking, and horrifying pic.twitter.com/uM7JjDQ7YS
          Show this thread
          15 replies 13 retweets 91 likes
          Show this thread
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        1. idomeneus‏ @idomeneus 12 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Is it possible to get deaths by age over that time period?

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. 心中的太隝是毛泽東 #TeamFauci‏ @shtuiothashuvot 12 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Couldn't we calculate how many people would die if everybody got Covid and start from that?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Stefan Schubert‏ @StefanFSchubert 12 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          There's been high death numbers in other countries with low mean age (though not as low), like Peru. Also Delta is much worse than previous variants.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Jun 2021
          Replying to @StefanFSchubert

          I know, but we have severity estimates already and this isn't in line with them.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Abhijeet Singh‏ @singhabhi 12 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Perhaps a combination of (i) much worse baseline health (so higher risk at every age than OECD) (ii) deaths from health disruption (iii) severe economic stress (iv) much worse fatality from new variants Disclaimer: these are guesses, I have no direct evidence

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. ___‏ @trombosit 12 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          The state has 74 mil pop. Roughly 1% above 70. Then roughly 10% between 40-70. If most people got covid in two months, w. no hospital care, quite likely to have these excess deaths. Plus the death rate with delta seems much higher.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Jamsheed‏ @jays_ear 12 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I’m not sure how much it explains but my sense is that the medical infrastructure has basically collapsed in a lot of the country, and in poor rural areas coverage wouldn’t be great to begin with.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Low Effort‏ @loweffort 12 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Isn't the just-two-months key? In that you could only get this level of damage for these demographics with a huge wave over a short period of time? (I haven't been following the details recently so maybe this is unrealistic for other reasons too)

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        1. midnucas #FueraLUMA  🇵🇷‏ @midnucas 12 Jun 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I'm reminded of the hurricane María aftermath, where common estimates of excess deaths are close to 1,000 per million. The problem was no electricity for months and its effect on communications, healthcare and transportation. Imagine COVID on top...https://periodismoinvestigativo.com/2018/09/the-deaths-of-hurricane-maria/ …

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