I know this is hard to think about this, but... We're almost certainly all going to be introduced to this pathogen, one way or the other—vaccines or exposure. The current increased transmissibility path means the time to make that choice, affirmatively, is shorter and shorter.
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Without a concrete plan on exactly *how* that supply will increase asap, all we have is thoughts and prayers and some cash, nice but not the real bottleneck. Patent waivers are fine, but nowhere near enough. No croissant recipe will allow me to mass produce croissants tomorrow.
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Take over whatever capacity we can, convert what we can, build what we can. More money at the problem is fine but without the first part, it can’t solve the supply problem quickly which is what we need.https://twitter.com/TeachEsp/status/1402692048415649792 …
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Yes. That’s the idea. Vaccine production is not easy and cannot be done by just turning over patents. Extra money at the problem is great but we need an active mobilization which means leadership and yes, governments cutting those deals to convert and add facilities. Now.https://twitter.com/james_e_baldwin/status/1402694624494424065 …
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Adding these statistics from India here. If they hold up—and they do look like they will but do note that I just can't wrap my head around it—the implications are truly catastrophic for countries with little vaccination and no prior huge outbreaks.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1403828841378992130 …
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Another state from India reports ~3000 per million excess deaths IN JUST ONE MONTH. This is catastrophic. Look, there just is not another whole year to vaccinate remaining vulnerable countries. For billions, it may be infection or vaccination, and soon. https://scroll.in/article/997427/andhra-pradesh-saw-400-increase-in-deaths-in-may-tamil-nadu-saw-more-modest-excess-mortality …pic.twitter.com/Y8UIZ4J57S
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Median age of Andhra Pradesh is 27, bit older than Madhya Pradesh, so it tracks that the death rate is slightly higher. There's some weirdness around Delta's diffusion which gives me hope that something we don't yet know may help spare other countries, BUT WE CAN'T COUNT ON THAT.
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COVID-19 may not go away, but the pandemic will end. If we don't vaccinate billions soon, which means governments intervening to help scale up production by any means necessary, now, it may well end by it sweeping through places with little prior immunity at a great human cost.
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Adding. I think the evidence for increased transmissibility of B.117 (alpha) was solid, now some evidence supporting that it was *also* more severe compared to wild type. Delta is almost certainly way more transmissible than even alpha *and* more severe.https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1404778318436646912?s=20 …
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We don't have a year to sloowly vaccinate the world, folks. I'm not worried about the vaccinated, but I'm pained watching countries with abundant vaccines debate this or that vaccine, or even breakthrough rates, when we have *billions* without access to even a single shot of any.
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I have friends and family all over the world, and I told all of them: take whatever you get the moment it's offered. That shot is the biggest line between you and death/severe illness. There much more to this, obviously, and increasing supply is key. But that line is very real.
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Yes, ideally, we increase supply of the highest efficacy ones. Maybe AZ prime/mRNA booster can be considered, as
@dylanhmorris was pointing out—fits the shape of the supply better. Maybe subunit ones are easier to scale up production. But this is key: time is of the essence here.Show this thread -
I’ll repeat what I wrote last month in the context of my oped warning about the Delta variant: The pandemic will end, now sooner because of it, with billions becoming exposed to this virus via infection or vaccination. We have an urgent moral responsibility to make it the latter.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1398266149532573705 …
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Terrible news for the unvaccinated and for countries without prior big outbreaks or mass vaccination. We must do everything we can—immediately—to speed up vaccination.