@BillHanage @dylanhmorris @wanderer_jasnah Could someone from the exponential hate club write this point in long-form? (Any new members?) The math of the trade-off between the potential confounders seems clear, but this is has never been explained clearly, as far as I can tell?https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1400565665715601411 …
Yeah I think the math is pretty clear, and it may even be worse for another reasons: there may be a breakpoint at which NPIs go bankrupt so you get a second derivative hit, and I don't like this at all, but people are instead freaking out over immune escape.
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