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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 30 May 2021

      COVID had a longer pre-infectious latent period and a much longer infectious period than I expected, again thinking about influenza. That means fewer generations than expected after time t, and thus higher R0 than one might expect.

      4 replies 11 retweets 186 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 30 May 2021

      2. Even after we knew that airborne transmission was very important, I remained concerned about fomite transmission through July 2020. (I still don't have solid evidence to rule it out, but to date it seems minimal at most.) Again, anchoring on flu.

      11 replies 14 retweets 226 likes
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    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 30 May 2021

      3. I considered it unlikely—though not impossible—that we'd see increases in transmissibility of the scale of B.1.1.7 or B.1.617.2 within the first few years of circulation. Here I was both anchoring on flu and comparing to the greater genetic variation available to flu.

      4 replies 5 retweets 177 likes
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    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 30 May 2021

      4. Through fall 2020 I thought that a very best case scenario for vaccine effectiveness was 85%. Again, anchoring on flu to some degree, even though I knew that the antigenic variation we see in flu would not be there for COVID.

      1 reply 6 retweets 164 likes
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    5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 30 May 2021

      In retrospect, where I've been wrong about things for COVID, it's been not so much because of poor inferences from available data, but rather because my priors were not flat enough.

      5 replies 11 retweets 263 likes
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    6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 30 May 2021

      Why? Probably because I spent the 2000s thinking about how prepare for a flu pandemic and clearly this—along with knowledge of the epidemiology of other human respiratory RNA viruses—influenced my priors around COVID too strongly.

      17 replies 12 retweets 372 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 May 2021
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

      This is very interesting to hear! I had a lengthy discussion about this with @PaulSaxMD (because I had written about this difference, Western countries on flu playbook while East Asia on SARS/MERS). + https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/8/3/ofab117/6178359 …pic.twitter.com/CePXk7DsDF

      2 replies 11 retweets 45 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 May 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @CT_Bergstrom @PaulSaxMD

      If you get out of the flu playbook, by February 2020, you can see what Dr. Oshitani of Japan has for example: key role of presymptomatic spread, airborne transmission, clustering (just Diamond princess plus Wuhan epi data works). I link to his papers here: https://www.theinsight.org/p/the-gaslighting-of-science …pic.twitter.com/KSUIQKCo5K

      2 replies 13 retweets 37 likes
    9. scott rosenstein‏ @scottrosenstein 31 May 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @CT_Bergstrom @PaulSaxMD

      But I thought pre symptomatic SARS1 transmission didn’t occur. So using a SARS/MERS playbook would’ve also missed this

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 May 2021
      Replying to @scottrosenstein @CT_Bergstrom @PaulSaxMD

      Playbook doesn't mean assume it is identical. Japan had presymptomatic figured out by Feb 2020 (could already see it in Diamond Princess), but in fact, Chinese minister of health was telling us that in JANUARY. It's in the piece referenced above. https://www.theinsight.org/p/the-gaslighting-of-science …pic.twitter.com/r33la1y5VO

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 31 May 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @scottrosenstein and

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      That said, presymptomatic spread is the key difference with SARS, and what makes this more a pandemic pathogen. But hint for that was already there in the January 2020 NEJM paper. (See my thread on it, that paper convinced me about the pandemic potential).https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1222662053329924098 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      So far, #nCoV2019 has some features more favorable than SARS (no super-spreaders identified yet etc.) BUT @NEJM paper says some have atypical presentation: gastro symptoms or mild clinical presentation. (SARS came with high fever). Translation: we need maybe millions of tests.😬
      Show this thread
      12:32 PM - 31 May 2021
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      • Nina Mäki-Kihniä lailsb
      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. scott rosenstein‏ @scottrosenstein 31 May 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @CT_Bergstrom @PaulSaxMD

          I.e. a playbook that weighted early 2020 signals more than previous assumptions from flu/sars1/MERS

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. scott rosenstein‏ @scottrosenstein 31 May 2021
          Replying to @scottrosenstein @zeynep and

          I think previous experience with SARS/MERS laid a foundation of public health literacy and some infrastructure that was helpful. But good outcomes were more about taking it seriously early along with some good bets at the margins around presymptomatic and indoor spread.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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