It's interesting to look back on the things that I got wrong over the course of the COVID pandemic, and to understand why. I think I got a fair bit right as well—perhaps most notably in being the first to point out the problems in the IHME model...
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yes, these were definitely key factors shaping the whole reality of this thing, and i can definitely imagine the diamond princess saga shape Japanese response more significantly than in the west
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Not just that though, if you read the rest of the article I link above. The anchoring on flu (and incorrect assumptions about droplets versus airborne transmission) is key, and we had our own examples here to work from.
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But I thought pre symptomatic SARS1 transmission didn’t occur. So using a SARS/MERS playbook would’ve also missed this
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Playbook doesn't mean assume it is identical. Japan had presymptomatic figured out by Feb 2020 (could already see it in Diamond Princess), but in fact, Chinese minister of health was telling us that in JANUARY. It's in the piece referenced above. https://www.theinsight.org/p/the-gaslighting-of-science …pic.twitter.com/r33la1y5VO
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