It's interesting to look back on the things that I got wrong over the course of the COVID pandemic, and to understand why. I think I got a fair bit right as well—perhaps most notably in being the first to point out the problems in the IHME model...
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If you get out of the flu playbook, by February 2020, you can see what Dr. Oshitani of Japan has for example: key role of presymptomatic spread, airborne transmission, clustering (just Diamond princess plus Wuhan epi data works). I link to his papers here: https://www.theinsight.org/p/the-gaslighting-of-science …pic.twitter.com/KSUIQKCo5K
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yes, these were definitely key factors shaping the whole reality of this thing, and i can definitely imagine the diamond princess saga shape Japanese response more significantly than in the west
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Trump is just an example of a terrible response from a right-wing populist in power. UK, Brazil, France and many others had a similar experience.
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