Here's the real talk: all pandemics end. For this one, we have a choice of how it ends, for billions: infection or vaccination. It's that simple, unfortunately. The idea we can slooooooowly get to vaccinating people while they all somehow avoid infection for years is not tenable.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted 李安科 (Tony) ɱ
Persistent error. One, that number only measures symptomatic breakthroughs. Two, the baseline is "no vaccines": so people ending up on ventilators and dying versus having some cold symptoms. Three, by all means, if you can increase mRNA supply I'm for it.https://twitter.com/protienking/status/1398268198181654531 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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At this moment in history the priority is any vaccine in maximum arms as soon as possible, starting with the most vulnerable and health-care workers where the crisis/outbreak is worst and prior immunity/vaccination is least. VE for symptomatic breakthroughs is lower on the list.
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There's a comforting but false fiction that we'll vaccinate the world, just a bit slowly. With even more transmissible variants like B.1.1.7 or B.1.617.2, that fiction is even more hollow. Many will be infected before they have a chance to get vaccinated. https://www.theinsight.org/p/we-need-to-get-real-about-how-the …pic.twitter.com/WnT1hKw3SI
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Tarek Milleron
I keep thinking about this. Billion remain unvaccinated, and without prior immunity, and outbreaks are getting harder to control. We could prevent so much suffering by getting vaccines out to the most vulnerable globally *as fast as possible.*https://twitter.com/TarekMilleron/status/1398341763664801792 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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I know this is hard to think about this, but... We're almost certainly all going to be introduced to this pathogen, one way or the other—vaccines or exposure. The current increased transmissibility path means the time to make that choice, affirmatively, is shorter and shorter.
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I believe the worst of the crisis is/will be over for many wealthy countries soon. We had large outbreaks and mass vaccination. In my view, our variant/efficacy fears are a bit misguided (though keep watching, sure). Not so for the many billions with little to no prior immunity.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted The Associated Press
So I see this. There’s not much to say until details are published. However, there’s enough we know from the other more transmissible variants to realize it’s already an emergency. Places like Vietnam *urgently* need vaccines—they had no outbreaks, hence little prior immunity.https://twitter.com/AP/status/1398652362353524737 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted
Ah, Alex shows up. Predictable rituals of life. I do want more data on the two vaccines from China, and the efficacy of both against symptomatic breakthroughs is lower. But from all real life data we have, they both greatly help prevent severe disease. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1398743127876374531 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Replying to @zeynep
Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬 Retweeted Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬
True. The two vaccines from China are as effective as the J&J or AZ vaccines. This was well shown for Sinopharm (actually 90% efficacious from real-life data) and for Sinovac when the interdose interval is at least 3 weeks.https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1396222641241919490 …
Michael Lin, MD PhD 🧬 added,
1 reply 3 retweets 4 likes
And that's just efficacy, not protection against severity. I don't see how this isn't screaming that we try get through this year with fewest deaths possible through rapid initial coverage — whatever that path is — and then sort out the rest later (Like Sinopharm boosters etc).
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Replying to @zeynep @michaelzlin
What do you think is the main barrier to countries making these decisions. Canada seemed to think that was better (more initial doses), but why didn’t other countries come to the same conclusion?
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Replying to @klausenhauser @zeynep
It's really about leadership: people at the top have to advocate for the best solution as indicated by the findings, and empower delegates to bypass SOP to implement those solutions. People don't want to take a risk and be wrong so you have to encourage it and protect it.
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