Persistent error. One, that number only measures symptomatic breakthroughs. Two, the baseline is "no vaccines": so people ending up on ventilators and dying versus having some cold symptoms. Three, by all means, if you can increase mRNA supply I'm for it.https://twitter.com/protienking/status/1398268198181654531 …
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At this moment in history the priority is any vaccine in maximum arms as soon as possible, starting with the most vulnerable and health-care workers where the crisis/outbreak is worst and prior immunity/vaccination is least. VE for symptomatic breakthroughs is lower on the list.
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There's a comforting but false fiction that we'll vaccinate the world, just a bit slowly. With even more transmissible variants like B.1.1.7 or B.1.617.2, that fiction is even more hollow. Many will be infected before they have a chance to get vaccinated. https://www.theinsight.org/p/we-need-to-get-real-about-how-the …pic.twitter.com/WnT1hKw3SI
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Tarek Milleron
I keep thinking about this. Billion remain unvaccinated, and without prior immunity, and outbreaks are getting harder to control. We could prevent so much suffering by getting vaccines out to the most vulnerable globally *as fast as possible.*https://twitter.com/TarekMilleron/status/1398341763664801792 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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I know this is hard to think about this, but... We're almost certainly all going to be introduced to this pathogen, one way or the other—vaccines or exposure. The current increased transmissibility path means the time to make that choice, affirmatively, is shorter and shorter.
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I believe the worst of the crisis is/will be over for many wealthy countries soon. We had large outbreaks and mass vaccination. In my view, our variant/efficacy fears are a bit misguided (though keep watching, sure). Not so for the many billions with little to no prior immunity.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted The Associated Press
So I see this. There’s not much to say until details are published. However, there’s enough we know from the other more transmissible variants to realize it’s already an emergency. Places like Vietnam *urgently* need vaccines—they had no outbreaks, hence little prior immunity.https://twitter.com/AP/status/1398652362353524737 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted
Ah, Alex shows up. Predictable rituals of life. I do want more data on the two vaccines from China, and the efficacy of both against symptomatic breakthroughs is lower. But from all real life data we have, they both greatly help prevent severe disease. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1398743127876374531 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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If we can make billions of doses of mRNA vaccines, let's go. If the choice is none vs any vaccine, real life data says *any* vaccine will help prevent deaths. I'm not advocating for a singular path. WHATEVER WE CAN DO AS FAST AS POSSIBLE. That is our global moral responsibility.
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Replying to @zeynep
For a virus 99%+ people survive. Some people are just bad at math and reality
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For the US, that's 3 million people, ignoring all the outcomes besides death. Globally, that's 50 million people (close to the civilian death total from World War II) just from the deaths.
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Replying to @zeynep @GeesHammond
Yes, a pandemic can cause deaths. In western countries twice as much deaths from heart attacks, yet we never closed fast food restaurants, have no dashboards about how many hospitalized or died today. We don’t force ppl to work out, we accept these risks. I think the bigger risk
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for most is that we roll a relative new vaccine out to the world population without knowing long term effects, censoring diff opinions, convinced ourselves we need a vaccine for something with 99,98 survival rate for most age groups. The world has gone absolutely mad.
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