Persistent error. One, that number only measures symptomatic breakthroughs. Two, the baseline is "no vaccines": so people ending up on ventilators and dying versus having some cold symptoms. Three, by all means, if you can increase mRNA supply I'm for it.https://twitter.com/protienking/status/1398268198181654531 …
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At this moment in history the priority is any vaccine in maximum arms as soon as possible, starting with the most vulnerable and health-care workers where the crisis/outbreak is worst and prior immunity/vaccination is least. VE for symptomatic breakthroughs is lower on the list.
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There's a comforting but false fiction that we'll vaccinate the world, just a bit slowly. With even more transmissible variants like B.1.1.7 or B.1.617.2, that fiction is even more hollow. Many will be infected before they have a chance to get vaccinated. https://www.theinsight.org/p/we-need-to-get-real-about-how-the …pic.twitter.com/WnT1hKw3SI
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Tarek Milleron
I keep thinking about this. Billion remain unvaccinated, and without prior immunity, and outbreaks are getting harder to control. We could prevent so much suffering by getting vaccines out to the most vulnerable globally *as fast as possible.*https://twitter.com/TarekMilleron/status/1398341763664801792 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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I know this is hard to think about this, but... We're almost certainly all going to be introduced to this pathogen, one way or the other—vaccines or exposure. The current increased transmissibility path means the time to make that choice, affirmatively, is shorter and shorter.
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I believe the worst of the crisis is/will be over for many wealthy countries soon. We had large outbreaks and mass vaccination. In my view, our variant/efficacy fears are a bit misguided (though keep watching, sure). Not so for the many billions with little to no prior immunity.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted The Associated Press
So I see this. There’s not much to say until details are published. However, there’s enough we know from the other more transmissible variants to realize it’s already an emergency. Places like Vietnam *urgently* need vaccines—they had no outbreaks, hence little prior immunity.https://twitter.com/AP/status/1398652362353524737 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted
Ah, Alex shows up. Predictable rituals of life. I do want more data on the two vaccines from China, and the efficacy of both against symptomatic breakthroughs is lower. But from all real life data we have, they both greatly help prevent severe disease. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1398743127876374531 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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If we can make billions of doses of mRNA vaccines, let's go. If the choice is none vs any vaccine, real life data says *any* vaccine will help prevent deaths. I'm not advocating for a singular path. WHATEVER WE CAN DO AS FAST AS POSSIBLE. That is our global moral responsibility.
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Replying to @zeynep
It's a good argument, if a) you can trust the data and b) the substitution effect is low enough that more effective vax's don't supplant effective to the point where there's more net transmission. chile's outbreak is hard to explain given its vaccination rate and stated efficacy.
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You don't have to trust internal data, we have real life data now. There is no substitution effect when the supply is limited. Chile is not at all hard to explain, the curve there is clear evidence of how the vaccines do work to help prevent severe disease or worse.
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Replying to @zeynep
The substitution effect would come with vaccines that are soon to arrive, not with the ones currently on-hand. The vaccines definitely helped in Chile, but disappointingly so compared to mRNA varxxed countries
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Replying to @zeynep
I agree with you in the main, but further modeling and analyses is needed--what I'm saying greatly depends on the estimated delay of an mRNA vaccine and the degree to which taking Sinovac will impair the uptake of mRNA vaccines later.
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