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zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

      It should be unthinkable that more people might die of COVID *after* we have vaccines that could save them. Yet, now with even more transmissible variants and little vaccine equity, that's what may happen. The emergency is great and billions are at risk. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/28/opinion/covid-vaccine-variants.html …pic.twitter.com/QNDvi5PDr1

      130 replies 2,574 retweets 5,443 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

      Real talk: globally, most people will get infected or vaccinated. Looks like the B.1.617.2 variant from India may be even *more* transmissible than B.1.1.7 which wreaked havoc. Countries without vaccines or big prior outbreaks are sitting ducks. WE COULD RESPOND BUT WE ARE NOT.pic.twitter.com/1vF3581t4F

      20 replies 354 retweets 925 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

      In a great moral strain, more people died of AIDS *after* we had a drug. Where is our never again? Yes, increasing vaccine supply is harder but that means we need to try harder. Waiving patents is fine but without other actions, it's "thoughts and prayers" of vaccine equity.pic.twitter.com/e1cyn3TBxu

      8 replies 203 retweets 804 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

      We should stop quibbling over which vaccine. For what we face, *any* vaccine is better than none. United States, Russia, China, UK, Europe... Everyone with a vaccine needs get together to figure out how to grab every last bit of capacity, make more—and direct it to crisis areas.pic.twitter.com/oTjEZXYHxy

      14 replies 249 retweets 830 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

      Look, we are not naive, we get it. But we have to rise above it. Forget the slow vaccine diplomacy and the bureaucracy. Whatever capacity we have, it should be commandeered—through whatever means necessary. If we need to just pay, just pay. It's not time to be prudent or frugal.

      8 replies 102 retweets 594 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

      When vaccines arrived, I volunteered at a clinic. Thousands of jubilant elderly people showed up each day. It was one of the most moving experiences of my life. Now, the clinic has vaccines but few show up. We just can't have "our" pandemic be over when the world looks like this.pic.twitter.com/sKOxwgcVG7

      10 replies 327 retweets 962 likes
      Show this thread
    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Meaghan Kall

      If we keep being this slow, it won't matter. People will get infected before they get a chance to get vaccinated, especially if the latest variant from India is indeed more transmissible as now seems likely. (Even if it is not, B.1.1.7 is bad enough).https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1397989237358747649 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Meaghan Kall @kallmemeg
      Secondary attack rates (the % of all close contacts of a case that go on to be infected) Transmissibility increase now growing - focussing on non-travel related (community cases) 13.5% for B.1.617.2 vs 8.1 for B.1.1.7 67% increased transmissibility, up from 50% last week 😬 pic.twitter.com/mPei7Jv6nN
      Show this thread
      3 replies 86 retweets 322 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

      Here's the real talk: all pandemics end. For this one, we have a choice of how it ends, for billions: infection or vaccination. It's that simple, unfortunately. The idea we can slooooooowly get to vaccinating people while they all somehow avoid infection for years is not tenable.

      6:13 AM - 28 May 2021
      • 272 Retweets
      • 887 Likes
      • Josephine Lau Manuel Scaccia 🕯 Natasha Markley Simon Tegg s_witch Independent&Free💫 Dapperanshu HRose/Abalieno
      7 replies 272 retweets 887 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted 李安科 (Tony) ɱ

          Persistent error. One, that number only measures symptomatic breakthroughs. Two, the baseline is "no vaccines": so people ending up on ventilators and dying versus having some cold symptoms. Three, by all means, if you can increase mRNA supply I'm for it.https://twitter.com/protienking/status/1398268198181654531 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          李安科 (Tony) ɱ @protienking
          Replying to @zeynep
          60% vs. 94% effectiveness over 7.9 bn people amounts to 2.7 bn effective vaccinations. Hardly a “quibble”.
          4 replies 49 retweets 390 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

          At this moment in history the priority is any vaccine in maximum arms as soon as possible, starting with the most vulnerable and health-care workers where the crisis/outbreak is worst and prior immunity/vaccination is least. VE for symptomatic breakthroughs is lower on the list.

          5 replies 75 retweets 414 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

          There's a comforting but false fiction that we'll vaccinate the world, just a bit slowly. With even more transmissible variants like B.1.1.7 or B.1.617.2, that fiction is even more hollow. Many will be infected before they have a chance to get vaccinated. https://www.theinsight.org/p/we-need-to-get-real-about-how-the …pic.twitter.com/WnT1hKw3SI

          9 replies 122 retweets 380 likes
          Show this thread
        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Tarek Milleron

          I keep thinking about this. Billion remain unvaccinated, and without prior immunity, and outbreaks are getting harder to control. We could prevent so much suffering by getting vaccines out to the most vulnerable globally *as fast as possible.*https://twitter.com/TarekMilleron/status/1398341763664801792 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Tarek Milleron @TarekMilleron
          "This pathogen has one fatality rate when oxygen is available as a therapy and one when it is not, and it would be an unspeakable tragedy to suffer the latter in the second year of the pandemic." @zeynep Remedying this is the baseline for modern society.
          9 replies 123 retweets 421 likes
          Show this thread
        6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

          I know this is hard to think about this, but... We're almost certainly all going to be introduced to this pathogen, one way or the other—vaccines or exposure. The current increased transmissibility path means the time to make that choice, affirmatively, is shorter and shorter.

          5 replies 59 retweets 330 likes
          Show this thread
        7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 28 May 2021

          I believe the worst of the crisis is/will be over for many wealthy countries soon. We had large outbreaks and mass vaccination. In my view, our variant/efficacy fears are a bit misguided (though keep watching, sure). Not so for the many billions with little to no prior immunity.

          13 replies 58 retweets 357 likes
          Show this thread
        8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 May 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted The Associated Press

          So I see this. There’s not much to say until details are published. However, there’s enough we know from the other more transmissible variants to realize it’s already an emergency. Places like Vietnam *urgently* need vaccines—they had no outbreaks, hence little prior immunity.https://twitter.com/AP/status/1398652362353524737 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          The Associated PressVerified account @AP
          Vietnam has discovered a new coronavirus variant that’s a hybrid of strains first found in India and the U.K. The Vietnamese health minister said the new variant could be responsible for a recent surge in the country. http://apne.ws/AdwBOg5 
          4 replies 70 retweets 224 likes
          Show this thread
        9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 May 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted

          Ah, Alex shows up. Predictable rituals of life. I do want more data on the two vaccines from China, and the efficacy of both against symptomatic breakthroughs is lower. But from all real life data we have, they both greatly help prevent severe disease. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1398743127876374531 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          19 replies 13 retweets 199 likes
          Show this thread
        10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 May 2021

          If we can make billions of doses of mRNA vaccines, let's go. If the choice is none vs any vaccine, real life data says *any* vaccine will help prevent deaths. I'm not advocating for a singular path. WHATEVER WE CAN DO AS FAST AS POSSIBLE. That is our global moral responsibility.

          17 replies 114 retweets 630 likes
          Show this thread
        11. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 1 Jun 2021

          Remember the freak out over Seychelles because, despite widespread vaccination with AstraZeneca and Sinopharm, it had an increase cases (though mostly among the unvaccinated)? They had 14 deaths total for all of May, as far as I know none among the vaccinated. Vaccines work.pic.twitter.com/wVerUkmo1c

          10 replies 77 retweets 346 likes
          Show this thread
        12. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Jun 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Meaghan Kall

          Delta (formerly B.1.617.2) appears to be more severe in addition to more transmissible.😢Terrible news for the unvaccinated and for countries without prior big outbreaks or mass vaccination. We must do everything we can—immediately—to speed up vaccination.https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1400489338425810951 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Meaghan Kall @kallmemeg
          This is due to 2 new analyses on severity, one from England and one from Scotland. They both found the same: Increased severity of Delta (B.1.617.2) - Risk of A&E attendance (Hazard Ratio 1.67) - Risk of hospital admission (HR 2.61 England, 2.39 Scotland ) pic.twitter.com/LQlnjpo8d3
          Show this thread
          7 replies 130 retweets 232 likes
          Show this thread
        13. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Jun 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Paul Sax

          It's now more plausible that, without an immediate and massive campaign to increase vaccine supply and speed up distribution, we'll end up with more deaths from COVID after we had vaccines that could prevent them. A repeat of sorts of the AIDS catastrophe.https://twitter.com/PaulSaxMD/status/1398418667935879171 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Paul SaxVerified account @PaulSaxMD
          The analogy here with HIV by @zeynep is quite compelling -- specifically that most HIV-related deaths occurred *after* we had effective ART. The same might be true about Covid and effective vaccines, unless distribution rapidly improves. https://www.theinsight.org/p/we-need-to-get-real-about-how-the?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxOTY2MTIxLCJwb3N0X2lkIjozNjk1MzQ5OCwiXyI6ImlLeHJaIiwiaWF0IjoxNjIyMjQzNzU1LCJleHAiOjE2MjIyNDczNTUsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0xMTg0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.S1IzDV35qF9HgtPhsTI31d11ze0mxQ-TCQSk95142Vc …
          8 replies 66 retweets 195 likes
          Show this thread
        14. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 3 Jun 2021

          The White House just announced a donation of money and vaccine sharing with COVAX, the global program headed by WHO. That's great but WE NEED MORE VACCINES and thus we need to work to increase the supply ASAP. Money can't buy vaccines which don't exist. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/03/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-global-vaccine-distribution/ …pic.twitter.com/Dtej7WWcIQ

          5 replies 43 retweets 131 likes
          Show this thread
        15. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Jun 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Noah Weiland

          Let me be honest. The sentiment is nice, but there is little chance that billions will be able to avoid getting infected FOR EVEN ANOTHER YEAR, let alone two, while waiting for vaccines. Increasing the supply NOW is the key. Otherwise, the pandemic will end, but with more deaths.https://twitter.com/noahweiland/status/1402685889835307014 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Noah WeilandVerified account @noahweiland
          The Biden administration plans to send 500 million doses of Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine to other countries over the next two years w/ @SharonLNYT @SherylNYT https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/09/us/politics/biden-global-vaccine-plan.html …
          4 replies 80 retweets 284 likes
          Show this thread
        16. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Jun 2021

          Extra money to incentivize supply ramp up is fine but I’m not sure that incentive is lacking. What we need is for vaccine production capable countries to come together and decide *that facility* there is now going to produce *this* vaccine, conversion work starting 7am tomorrow.

          3 replies 35 retweets 159 likes
          Show this thread
        17. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Jun 2021

          Without a concrete plan on exactly *how* that supply will increase asap, all we have is thoughts and prayers and some cash, nice but not the real bottleneck. Patent waivers are fine, but nowhere near enough. No croissant recipe will allow me to mass produce croissants tomorrow.

          2 replies 25 retweets 125 likes
          Show this thread
        18. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Jun 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted ~ esperanza ~

          Take over whatever capacity we can, convert what we can, build what we can. More money at the problem is fine but without the first part, it can’t solve the supply problem quickly which is what we need.https://twitter.com/TeachEsp/status/1402692048415649792 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          ~ esperanza ~ @TeachEsp
          Replying to @zeynep @ParkerMolloy
          They already committed to waiving the patents and sent a ton of materials/aid to other countries to increase development of vaccines. What else can they realistically do for other sovereign countries? https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/05/05/biden-waives-vaccine-patents/ …
          8 replies 9 retweets 85 likes
          Show this thread
        19. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Jun 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted James E. Baldwin

          Yes. That’s the idea. Vaccine production is not easy and cannot be done by just turning over patents. Extra money at the problem is great but we need an active mobilization which means leadership and yes, governments cutting those deals to convert and add facilities. Now.https://twitter.com/james_e_baldwin/status/1402694624494424065 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          James E. Baldwin @james_e_baldwin
          Replying to @TeachEsp @zeynep @ParkerMolloy
          Obviously it's not a direct analogy, but during WW2 the USA requisitioned much of its private manufacturing manufacturing capacity to produce weapons and vehicles for Britain and the USSR. I'm theory there's way more they could do
          5 replies 30 retweets 164 likes
          Show this thread
        20. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Jun 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

          Adding these statistics from India here. If they hold up—and they do look like they will but do note that I just can't wrap my head around it—the implications are truly catastrophic for countries with little vaccination and no prior huge outbreaks.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1403828841378992130 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
          I don't know how to wrap my head around this. As @covidserology puts it, it would mean ~2000 deaths per million in a rural state with a median age of 23, in JUST TWO MONTHS. About 170,000 excess deaths, over two months. Even if not all from COVID, this is a catastrophic picture. https://twitter.com/Rukmini/status/1403563967172153344 …
          Show this thread
          7 replies 36 retweets 115 likes
          Show this thread
        21. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

          Another state from India reports ~3000 per million excess deaths IN JUST ONE MONTH. This is catastrophic. Look, there just is not another whole year to vaccinate remaining vulnerable countries. For billions, it may be infection or vaccination, and soon. https://scroll.in/article/997427/andhra-pradesh-saw-400-increase-in-deaths-in-may-tamil-nadu-saw-more-modest-excess-mortality …pic.twitter.com/Y8UIZ4J57S

          2 replies 70 retweets 155 likes
          Show this thread
        22. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

          Median age of Andhra Pradesh is 27, bit older than Madhya Pradesh, so it tracks that the death rate is slightly higher. There's some weirdness around Delta's diffusion which gives me hope that something we don't yet know may help spare other countries, BUT WE CAN'T COUNT ON THAT.

          4 replies 11 retweets 65 likes
          Show this thread
        23. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 Jun 2021

          COVID-19 may not go away, but the pandemic will end. If we don't vaccinate billions soon, which means governments intervening to help scale up production by any means necessary, now, it may well end by it sweeping through places with little prior immunity at a great human cost.

          7 replies 47 retweets 157 likes
          Show this thread
        24. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Jun 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted The BMJ

          Adding. I think the evidence for increased transmissibility of B.117 (alpha) was solid, now some evidence supporting that it was *also* more severe compared to wild type. Delta is almost certainly way more transmissible than even alpha *and* more severe.https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1404778318436646912?s=20 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          The BMJVerified account @bmj_latest
          The results of this new study suggest that the risk of hospital admission is higher for people infected with the B.1.1.7 variant compared with wild-type SARS-CoV-2, likely reflecting a more severe disease @DrTommyNyberg http://ow.ly/mzsu50FaBDB 
          2 replies 18 retweets 56 likes
          Show this thread
        25. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Jun 2021

          We don't have a year to sloowly vaccinate the world, folks. I'm not worried about the vaccinated, but I'm pained watching countries with abundant vaccines debate this or that vaccine, or even breakthrough rates, when we have *billions* without access to even a single shot of any.

          8 replies 78 retweets 253 likes
          Show this thread
        26. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Jun 2021

          I have friends and family all over the world, and I told all of them: take whatever you get the moment it's offered. That shot is the biggest line between you and death/severe illness. There much more to this, obviously, and increasing supply is key. But that line is very real.

          7 replies 27 retweets 190 likes
          Show this thread
        27. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 16 Jun 2021

          Yes, ideally, we increase supply of the highest efficacy ones. Maybe AZ prime/mRNA booster can be considered, as @dylanhmorris was pointing out—fits the shape of the supply better. Maybe subunit ones are easier to scale up production. But this is key: time is of the essence here.

          3 replies 7 retweets 84 likes
          Show this thread
        28. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Jun 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

          I’ll repeat what I wrote last month in the context of my oped warning about the Delta variant: The pandemic will end, now sooner because of it, with billions becoming exposed to this virus via infection or vaccination. We have an urgent moral responsibility to make it the latter.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1398266149532573705 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
          Here's the real talk: all pandemics end. For this one, we have a choice of how it ends, for billions: infection or vaccination. It's that simple, unfortunately. The idea we can slooooooowly get to vaccinating people while they all somehow avoid infection for years is not tenable.
          Show this thread
          8 replies 53 retweets 158 likes
          Show this thread
        29. End of conversation

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