OK let's get this on record. What percentage chance would you assign to a lab leak? Because there are a lot of credible people I'm reading from and talking to that consider it reasonably likely (at least 50%).https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1397807872033976323 …
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Not impossible but less than 1% for a lab leak of a natural isolate. Logs below that for an engineered virus.
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Replying to @florian_krammer @NateSilver538
We need to assess possibility of lab leak not in isolation, based purely on scientific likelihood, but also in context of what we know: the admittedly circumstantial facts that emerge.This is no longer a purely scientific judgement but a security assessment based on entire mosaic
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I feel like we're saying "odds of winning the lottery are very low" (true) to assess the causal path of a lottery winner (after it happened). Why did that person win this (terrible) lottery? Yes complex question but cannot be answered by examining the odds in a blank slate world.
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Replying to @zeynep @ScottGottliebMD and
This analogy is not apt. No one's arguing "the odds of a pandemic are low". We know how this "lottery" is usually won, and it's not from a lab. You're talking about the likelihood of *a rare way of winning the lottery*, not just the rarity *of* winning the lottery.
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Replying to @drethescientist @ScottGottliebMD and
Okay, good point. Can state it like that too. (Analogies and their limits). The point is priors and posteriors should not get assessed the same way. Lotteries are won rarely, and the path is usually buying a ticket. This person who won the lottery may have found it on the street.
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Replying to @zeynep @drethescientist and
How do we assess the latter after the person did win? "The lottery is won very very rarely, and when it is won, it is by people who purchase tickets" is a reasonable point, but does not let us figure out if *this* winner found it on the street (possible but rare in the past).
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Replying to @zeynep @ScottGottliebMD and
I think that is a much better analogy. But everyone seems to want to figure this out on Twitter, when in reality all we can do is wait for actual scientific evidence. Assessing the odds either way has no impact on figuring out the actual answer
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In some ways, I agree. In other ways, at least understanding the question correctly could help make this saner? (And could also help provide a better framework for discussing the evidentiary framework one would need to bring to a question like this, rather than what we're doing).
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