It's not a way to answer "what actually happened." It's a way to assess the likelihood that something happened. Aggregating probabilistic estimates from experts is a good way for a layperson to understand what those experts believe as a group. https://twitter.com/barry/status/1397884687108952068 …
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Replying to @JamesSurowiecki
If you ask the right experts, which simply does not and cannot happen on social media anymore on this topic, in my view. More likely to be misleading.
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Replying to @zeynep
But how do we know who the "right experts" are? Anyway, I don't think social media is the right tool for soliciting estimates like this. But the principle is sound.
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
Replying to @JamesSurowiecki
It's not impossible to figure out the group that has the relevant expertise, and maybe even try to find a way to poll them, but they are definitely not represented on social media in any form that resembles what one would need. That's been the key fallacy last year for media.
7:30 AM - 27 May 2021
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