OK let's get this on record. What percentage chance would you assign to a lab leak? Because there are a lot of credible people I'm reading from and talking to that consider it reasonably likely (at least 50%).https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1397807872033976323 …
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The former (pandemics in general) is very important obviously, but given that they are rare enough (thankfully) it would be helpful not to conflate priors with posteriors—the path to *this* pandemic, which already happened—in our causal analysis because it, too, can hold lessons.
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(Now add in some magic dust to make it all a sane, grounded and empirically-oriented conversation, instead of what we have, and we're good).

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