OK let's get this on record. What percentage chance would you assign to a lab leak? Because there are a lot of credible people I'm reading from and talking to that consider it reasonably likely (at least 50%).https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1397807872033976323 …
-
-
So two questions: if we had no pandemic, given what we know, how would we expect the next one to happen? Now that we *do* have this one, how would we assess what did happen? This doesn't argue for a particular answer to the issue: just that these are different causal questions.
-
The former (pandemics in general) is very important obviously, but given that they are rare enough (thankfully) it would be helpful not to conflate priors with posteriors—the path to *this* pandemic, which already happened—in our causal analysis because it, too, can hold lessons.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
This analogy is not apt. No one's arguing "the odds of a pandemic are low". We know how this "lottery" is usually won, and it's not from a lab. You're talking about the likelihood of *a rare way of winning the lottery*, not just the rarity *of* winning the lottery.
-
Okay, good point. Can state it like that too. (Analogies and their limits). The point is priors and posteriors should not get assessed the same way. Lotteries are won rarely, and the path is usually buying a ticket. This person who won the lottery may have found it on the street.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
No. There is a lot of money in someone’s bank account and your argument is that they must have won the lottery. That’s the analogy.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
if you are characterizing krammer's tweet as a lottery, then I disagree he is giving a priori odds of winning a lottery he is giving a posteriori odds a lottery that has already been won (a pandemic that has already happened) was won by a given person (caused by a lab leak)
-
of course, the reason he would give odds is, even though the lottery has a "winner", the "winner" hasn't stepped forward yet to claim his "prize" and his identity, therefore, isn't known this is distinct from the question you pose, "what are the odds a pandemic that happens in,
- Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.