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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 May 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted CDC Flu

      There may be a re-examination of other respiratory pathogens now that there's been progress on a better understanding airborne transmission. (1918 pandemic influenza was also overdispersed and we know flu can be airborne plus it's sensitive to ventilation as a mitigation... )https://twitter.com/CDCFlu/status/1395046890450915332 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      CDC FluVerified account @CDCFlu
      A new CDC study from South Africa published in @LancetGH found that asymptomatic infections may be a driver of flu transmission. 44% of lab-confirmed, flu infections in the study were in people who reported no symptoms. Learn more here: https://bit.ly/3uW66op  pic.twitter.com/rsvQEl3cFr
      22 replies 156 retweets 529 likes
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    2. Dave Blake, PhD‏ @_stah 19 May 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      I cannot find scholarly support for your claim that the 1918 influenza was overdispersed - only loose references to a k of around 1 like other flus. Are there sources for this claim?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 May 2021
      Replying to @_stah

      https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/174/5/505/117666 … is one. (One interesting bit is the difference between aggregate R0 calculations from large populations and those from smaller settings like military camps or ships, where you get a lot of variability and some much higher estimates).

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    4. Dave Blake, PhD‏ @_stah 19 May 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      That article models dispersion in 1918 flu at 0.94, or relatively normal, which matches other sources on the 1918 flu. Estimates of k vary for Sars-COV-2, but are in the 0.1 to 0.2 range, similar to measles.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 May 2021
      Replying to @_stah

      Yes, they don't estimate anything like measles, but it is still overdispersed ("20% responsible for about 50% transmission"). But a lot of variability in the individual studies (though necessarily historically limited). Hints also pandemic flu has different k than seasonal flu.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 19 May 2021
      Replying to @zeynep @_stah

      (I didn't really compare to SARS-CoV-2 to measles; clearly the latter is much more highly contagious but I've seen measles k estimates from 0.03 to 0.30 and more).

      10:34 AM - 19 May 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • Prof. Jose-Luis Jimenez karkar
      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. Dave Blake, PhD‏ @_stah 20 May 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          I think the estimates for k for measles trend lower, but I am not convinced there is a clear difference between it and SARS-COV-2 in dispersion.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. I Brake 4 Ants‏ @ibrake4ants 20 May 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @_stah

          Two experts—Michael Osterholm and Robert Redfield (yes, Trump’s former CDC Director) have said that they think Covid will require a similar level of herd immunity that measles requires to bring it under control—somewhere around 90%.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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