"Nothing in this pandemic makes sense except in the light of novelty." Brilliant essay by @dylanhmorris p/b @zeynephttps://www.theinsight.org/p/novelty-means-severity-the-key-to?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter …
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A 'novelty means it will be more severe' counterexample - or exception that proves the rule? (different timescales) - is wave 1 vs wave 2 of the 1918 flu.
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Replying to @dylanhmorris @RubeHeretic and
Was just thinking about this theme yesterday re West Nile Virus (introduced to N America in 1999).. much more dangerous for elderly, but case fatality are decreasing a bit in USA.. probably because more folks exposed before old age.
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Replying to @macroliter @dylanhmorris and
Yeah, I chatted with Dylan about this—there may be ways to probe some of this, empirically including for long-term sequelae by looking at introductions/clusters.
6:45 AM - 19 May 2021
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