Once we center *novelty* into our analytic framework for this pandemic, as @dylanhmorris does in this essay, so many things fall into place, including why some of our intuitions from other diseases can be misleading and why some of our worries aren't as big a deal as portrayed.
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Also the interaction between novelty, severity and our immune system means that a vaccine breakthrough case is NOT the same thing as a case in someone never infected or vaccinated, but we still need herd immunity for the immunocompromised and the elderly. https://www.theinsight.org/p/novelty-means-severity-the-key-to …pic.twitter.com/hBF8WXsvpV
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I've seen a lot of worries about vaccine breakthrough cases, like the Yankees' outbreak (I wrote about that a few days ago: https://www.theinsight.org/p/why-the-vaccine-are-a-home-run-despite …) or the Seychelles numbers. The essay by
@dylanhmorris is excellent for putting science and intuition to work for thinking about it.Show this thread
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This was great. Question for Dr. Morris: Given the importance & utility of encountering common viruses in childhood, do you see any worrying implications of our quiet cold/flu season & desire among some to continue widespread masking to avoid colds/flu, particularly among kids?
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Same question here along with any other possible detrimental effects of too much masking. One of my MDs made that case to me, "you don't want to get too dependent on wearing a mask for protection."
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And relatively understandable for layperson too!
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Great read… in terms of novelty I wonder why H1N1 influenza A virus during the 1918 pandemic affected the young disportionately.? Was it a robust immune system being its own worst enemy and/or had the older populations been exposed to the virus previously?
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The latter according to a lecture by a Canadian researcher posted on YouTube. He looked at the first viruses that they were likely exposed to at the beginning of their lives. I will try to find a link...
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*Not* impressed by the fact that the writer uses the tendentious & abstract phrase Long Covid without making it clear that no one can possibly know whether and to what extent LC exists, since our experience with this bug is currently Short Covid.
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17 months post infection phase since first infections seems long enough to call it long Covid.
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