I wouldn’t compare. One is a tiny ~300k person country; the other is one billion+ people with 45% test positivity in some states. Plus only 57% of that small country received the Sinopharm, rest have AZ. And the hospitalized are overwhelmingly unvaccinated or have comorbidities.
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Replying to @zeynep
I saw a figure of 80% hospitalized were not vaccinated OR had comorbidities. That's still a significant amount of breakthroughs, especially if they're using a liberal definition of comorbidities.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/12/who-reviewing-seychelles-data-after-fully-vaccinated-get-covid …
9 replies 2 retweets 42 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @zeynep
In other words, 20% of the people getting hospitalized are vaccinated AND have no comorbidities. Given that most of the patients hospitalized before vaccination had comorbidities, this is not super reassuring to me.https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2777028 …
4 replies 4 retweets 29 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @zeynep
Noah Smith 🐇 Retweeted Noah Smith 🐇
Yes, it's a small country, so the comparison is difficult. Bahrain is also very small, but 16 times larger than Seychelles, and we're seeing a similar phenomenon there. So, I am concerned.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1394443930419142656 …
Noah Smith 🐇 added,
8 replies 5 retweets 31 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion
You’re again comparing a tiny country with extensive testing capacity and vaccination, with a one billion+ person country with 45% test positivity in some states and a mostly unvaccinated population. Even what a “confirmed case” means in Bahrain is not the same thing as India.
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Replying to @zeynep
OK. But compare it to any other country, and it's still cause for concern.
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Replying to @zeynep
The concern is that the Sinopharm vaccine is considerably less effective than other vaccines. Remember, this is a vaccine that we never got really good data on to begin with.https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/exclusive-who-experts-voice-very-low-confidence-some-sinopharm-covid-19-vaccine-2021-05-05/ …
3 replies 3 retweets 32 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @zeynep
If it turns out that Sinopharm is substantially less effective than other vaccines, that should affect countries' decision of which vaccine to purchase, and it should make exporting mRNA vaccines a more urgent priority for the U.S.
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Replying to @Noahpinion @zeynep
mRNA, but also J&J, Novavax, and AstraZeneca - all seem to provide substantially more protection against the new variants than Sinopharm. I'm curious about Sputnik and the Indian Covaxin.
4 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
More mRNA vaccines for the world would be great, but the fact that all the vaccines, including the ones with unclear trials, are holding up very well including against the variants where it matters (as far as we can tell: some have not yet been tested the way it counts) is good.
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