First (probably of many) reports looking especially at the initial WHO response to the pandemic, and what went wrong there. Good points, including need for more clout, independence, and resources. I look forward to the investigation that looks at guidelines/recs (it will happen).https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1392428332873027587 …
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Ideally, we'll eventually have an NTSB style no-blame post-mortem analysis—no blame because we've already seen the defensiveness (human, but not helpful) and it impedes understanding. Besides, the point is to figure things out for the future. We can and should do better.
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Here, we need one for the CDC and at the state level as well, trying to understand both how the previous administration hampered efforts and also what wasn't working well (yes, those are intertwined, but both exist).
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Here's a paper from Science modeling the early spread. Most introductions were dead-ends. Earlier acceptance of the key trifecta—indoor superspreading as choke-point, transmission without symptoms, and airborne spread—could have given us a different path.https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6516/564.long …
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(Also remember: when facing exponential growth, early action is worth so much more, and delay is very, very costly. There are things that will work early on in an epidemic that simply cannot keep up even just a few weeks later. I expect many papers will explore all that).
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End of conversation
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It's weird how history repeats itself. I've been reading about the response to cholera and John Snow had good evidence of waterborne transmission five years before he *finally convinced local authorities to remove the Broad Street Pump handle.https://books.google.com/books?id=-_dZAAAAcAAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q=water&f=false …
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