A @linseymarr thread from March 5, 2020. Look at how well it holds up. There are people across the world and across discipline working on all this, many before the pandemic, and in some countries they were listened to (early masking, cluster focus).https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1235641151249616896 …
-
-
The other part is how causal inference differs by field. Clinical practice rightly uses randomized trials (crucial for drugs and vaccines) but the clear point that the droplet theory didn't do a good job explaining the world as we observed it didn't get the attention it deserved.
Show this thread -
Overlooked but key. Nothing about transmission in this pandemic makes sense except in the light of overdispersion. It alternates between contagious clusters and little to no transmission. This makes causal inference difficult. It fries our assumptions. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …pic.twitter.com/nygPqC3yzn
Show this thread -
Yes, around the world, to this day. And the constant overuse of bleach etc. is not just a waste of time and resources, it's genuinely unhealthy. "Stop over-disinfecting and start ventilating" has to be a loud campaign, led by WHO & public health agencies.https://twitter.com/Calamitatis/status/1391733545270497282?s=20 …
Show this thread -
Yes. Some of what we can do is easy/free. Some of it is not, and requires resources and trade-offs (sealed building are energy efficient). Filtering can be an option when dilution is not. Challenge is very real, but still should start from the right place.https://twitter.com/SeeTedTalk/status/1391739250291486727 …
Show this thread -
Yep. Overdispersed things can't be studied with methods not suitable for them. Example: information provided by non-events is asymmetric compared to info from events. Cluster-randomized trials—say for source control—can't easily get statistical power. Etc.https://twitter.com/DrPieterPeach/status/1391741852852756486 …
Show this thread -
Let me highlight that excellent work has been happening all year, as well. Resistance to relevant expertise was a problem, but many key papers from this year are co-authored by people across disciplines. One interesting interdisciplinary panel today.https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1391751814840717316 …
Show this thread -
Excellent, rapid progress from the CDC, clarifying the tables that came with the aerosol update.https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1391863551132897285 …
Show this thread -
I recently went through the same chasing down of known outdoor case percentage. Same conclusion. As
@mugecevik explains, "less than 10%" is misleading. Reported numbers of confirmed cases are around 0.1% so way lower than 10% even assuming undercounting. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/11/briefing/outdoor-covid-transmission-cdc-number.html …pic.twitter.com/1Zr5Iuqj54
Show this thread -
Seeing so many wondering if confirmed outdoor transmission can really be that low, compared with indoors. Yes. This confusion is another loss of being so late to acknowledge the key role of aerosols: the epidemiological record shows exactly what acknowledging aerosols predicts.
Show this thread -
Yep, the problem with gyms — enclosed spaces where people engage in activities that we know greatly increase aerosol production — is that we aren't sufficiently good at spraying the weights with disinfectants. (ht
@slowphotograph2)https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1392909521819996165 …
Show this thread -
This is why the whole lack of clear communication and understanding around aerosol transmission—and the ensuing dominant visualization of COVID-19 mitigation as disinfecting, and its breach as people outdoors/beaches—matters. It makes things worse. https://twitter.com/dankrutka/status/1392913606522646538 …
This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.