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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 May 2021

      Before this gets out of hand... The first two weeks after a vaccine will include pre-vaccine infections PLUS the immune system takes some time. So "one-dose efficacy" can't be calculated without that info. A reporter can track down author's reported response? via @supermarioelia https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1390107362485211136 …pic.twitter.com/PT1aTKrPUT

      8 replies 49 retweets 235 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 May 2021

      (I still wish he had a proper trial on dose-sparing strategies so we'd have longer-term data, too but...) Let's not needlessly panic people who are in countries that use this strategy. But GOOD REMINDER: the first week or two after vaccination isn't post-vaccination at all.

      3 replies 8 retweets 89 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 May 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Zain Chagla

      See more here:https://twitter.com/zchagla/status/1390351418549276676 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Zain ChaglaVerified account @zchagla
      So redoing this analysis with this in mind (and excluding 2/3 of the cases with this assumption) I would get 77% vaccine efficacy against B117 post first dose. That is actually pretty decent! These @NEJM letters need more peer review for these implications.
      Show this thread
      2:06 PM - 6 May 2021
      • 4 Retweets
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      • Bob Kreus Ray D'Antuono NutshellGulag Henry Stern Nico Vallone Matt Lichti Krista Thompson Myrrh
      5 replies 4 retweets 42 likes
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 May 2021

          Speaking of, the study also does find that the (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccines were 97.4% (CI:92.2–99.5) effective against preventing severe outcomes (hospitalization and death) for all breakthrough cases, including for B.1.351 variant.pic.twitter.com/NYCizsB0kz

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        1. Wayne Kozun‏ @wayner99 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Does the UK have data on the efficacy after one dose? They did the stretch the time between first and second dose strategy as well.

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        2. Arieh Kovler‏Verified account @ariehkovler 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          There's a Pfizer/Israel Health Ministry paper in the Lancet today that actually comes up with 77% efficiency against death 14+ days after the first dose in a B117 outbreak, so that fits well. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00947-8/fulltext …pic.twitter.com/rtv1ZJBwxC

          1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 May 2021
          Replying to @ariehkovler

          Yeah if one sees a number that is a about a third of what had been consistently reported for six months non-stop, one could at least stop and read the study and think for a minute on what it may mean.

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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        1. Sharan Banagiri‏ @geodesicvoyager 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Is there a similar corrected estimate for single dose efficacy against the B.1.351 variant? I guess the original number of 17% that Eric mentioned is wrong for similar reasons?

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        1. Adair Thompson‏ @adair_from_ns 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Adair Thompson Retweeted

          Here's some early Ontario info and a few comments. It's definitely got some time delay mixed in there and there really aren't that many fully vaccinated to tell the difference. https://twitter.com/moebius_strip/status/1390018768965804034?s=21 …

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