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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 May 2021

      Some charts from the UK where deaths are down by 99%. They have the NHS and high vaccine take-up. Their expert committee recommended delaying boosters to expand coverage. They also had a lengthy restricted period. Now getting ready to lift more restrictions and focus on boosters.pic.twitter.com/UaL4xk7HxG

      25 replies 234 retweets 945 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 May 2021

      Let's highlight this excellent piece by @ZoeMcLaren on the power of exponential *decay.* On the way up, waiting a week too long to act has disproportional terrible impact. On the way *down*, waiting just a bit more to relax has the opposite amazing effect. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/opinion/covid-exponential-decay.html …pic.twitter.com/O3TvHsnaYa

      5:50 AM - 6 May 2021
      • 92 Retweets
      • 365 Likes
      • Condo Owner/Director Dr KayRay WillGoble Abhishek Singh Emmellemm Johannes Richter James Lewis Gail Nevin Bob
      7 replies 92 retweets 365 likes
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 May 2021

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted

          For a great formal paper on what exponentials mean on the way up —with a thread explaining it— see below. Abstract: "For robust control, an intervention must be strong, early, and ideally sustained" aka throw whatever you have at it as early as possible.😀 https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1384643623061360640 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

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        2. Andy Schmidt‏ @andyaschmidt 6 May 2021

          Except this time a catastrophe will have to come from a different variant if there is one, so ironically having a controlled burn amount antivaxxers offers a little protection. But the whole world has a duty to lower the base rate to stop those variants in first place.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Varun Nair‏ @ntkeep 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Exponential decay is almost as hard to understand in practice as exponential growth

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Trent Hamm‏ @TrentHamm 6 May 2021
          Replying to @ntkeep @zeynep

          They're both difficult because they go against human intuition. We so often evaluate things based on how they are RIGHT NOW, not how the trends are pointing. COVID would be easy to defeat if humans were perfectly rational beings.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Zoë McLaren, PhD Retweeted Zoë McLaren, PhD

          This figure shows how relaxing precautions too soon can cause cases to plateau or even rise again. Waiting a bit longer can really help drive cases down. Especially as we continue to vaccinate.https://twitter.com/ZoeMcLaren/status/1387790118665216000 …

          Zoë McLaren, PhD added,

          Zoë McLaren, PhD @ZoeMcLaren
          Understanding exponential dynamics makes it easier to know what to expect: Why things will improve quickly as vaccination rates rise and why it’s important to maintain some precautions after case numbers come down. 3/6 pic.twitter.com/Eehf6QhcbQ
          Show this thread
          0 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
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        2. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Thanks for reading @zeynep and thanks for your kind words! Your work is incredibly insightful so it means so much coming from you.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 6 May 2021
          Replying to @ZoeMcLaren

          Aaaw, thank you. I was so happy to see your great piece on exponential decay, and also nice to have an actual example to apply it to. (Hope will so apply to many more countries, too). We keep having either/or discussions when the combinations are so powerful because exponential..

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Leo Fosse‏ @FosseLeo 6 May 2021
          Replying to @zeynep @ZoeMcLaren

          Nothing grows exponentially forever, limiting factors always kick in. Exponential decay can effectively go on forever, and that gives us the concept of a half life. Sadly, daily COVID deaths in the U.S. are taking longer to be cut in half.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 12 May 2021
          Replying to @FosseLeo @zeynep

          Exponential decay doesn't go on forever. It dies out faster than you think partly because of "k" (dispersion) - many cases don't spread at all so enough of those in short period (or w/ step up precautions for a few days) and epidemic dies out.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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