To understand why this is encouraging vaccine news, note that this is a *cluster* (overdispersed pathogen) *among the elderly* (vulnerable population) *who live together* (allows high attack rate). So way worse scenario compared with trials but vaccines *still* highly protective.https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1384968364460843016 …
-
Show this thread
-
I know the overdispersion can be hard to wrap one's mind around, but it's a crucial feature of this pandemic: it produces these clusters where lots of people get infected in contrast with those many cases (likely vast majority) where people don't seem to transmit onwards at all.
1 reply 18 retweets 209 likesShow this thread -
So when we look at vaccine efficacy against symptomatic disease in a *cluster* among *the elderly* in a *congregate setting* with a variant that worried us and see numbers this high: it's encouraging. Always, always, always: details matter in evaluating these studies.
4 replies 22 retweets 291 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted 𝒐𝒉 𝒃𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓
Yes, this is exactly what the study is telling us (plus this was a variant that had caused worry!). Raw numbers without context, or trial/cluster efficacy comparisons without also considering the underlying distribution aren't that informative.https://twitter.com/botheritall/status/1384985382597533700 …
zeynep tufekci added,
3 replies 32 retweets 258 likesShow this thread -
It is very important to study breakthrough cases, even if rare, and sequence them so we can keep an eye on what’s going on. Lab studies can only tell us so much. I just hope every such study doesn’t cause unnecessary alarms. This one showed particularly solid encouraging news.
2 replies 10 retweets 174 likesShow this thread -
Also: we can't directly compare efficacy from a *cluster among the elderly in a congregate setting* with a vaccine trial where participants aren't all living together and oversampled from the elderly. Even, if you concocted this, you'd find both in the same confidence interval.
1 reply 7 retweets 90 likesShow this thread -
I saw people deduce that this may imply weaker efficacy compared with the trial. That's not a thing we can conclude with a small breakthrough investigation but we can look at this as a case with really encouraging results. Nursing homes have fatalities from common cold outbreaks.
7 replies 11 retweets 139 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @zeynep
same reasons why this huge study of snf residents w median age 86 was some of the most encouraging data yet, even with just a single dose and “only” 62% protectionhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.26.21254391v1 …
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Exactly! Nursing home outbreaks are important: both more likely to happen (OC43 outbreaks cause fatalities in nursing homes!) and also crucial population to protect, but I'm afraid every study may generate a trail of misunderstandings.
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.