To understand why this is encouraging vaccine news, note that this is a *cluster* (overdispersed pathogen) *among the elderly* (vulnerable population) *who live together* (allows high attack rate). So way worse scenario compared with trials but vaccines *still* highly protective.https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1384968364460843016 …
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Here's the confidence interval calculation from the paper (though still note that this is an efficacy calculation for the elderly nursing home population in the same congregate setting, different than the trial population which was much younger and indepedent). CI is 65.6-94.7%.pic.twitter.com/9ONzXT9t5g
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I wrote a post for my newsletter, to try to explain why that particular study of a nursing home outbreak that affected even the vaccinated was really encouraging news. It's also an example of why we need more than "just the facts" to be better informed.https://www.theinsight.org/p/facts-are-pieces-of-a-puzzle-not/comments …
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My post on why that study of a nursing home outbreak in this thread that affected even the vaccinated was, in fact, encouraging news. It's also an example of why we need more than "just the facts" to be better informed. (Repost with the correct link.
)https://www.theinsight.org/p/facts-are-pieces-of-a-puzzle-not …Show this thread
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same reasons why this huge study of snf residents w median age 86 was some of the most encouraging data yet, even with just a single dose and “only” 62% protectionhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.26.21254391v1 …
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Exactly! Nursing home outbreaks are important: both more likely to happen (OC43 outbreaks cause fatalities in nursing homes!) and also crucial population to protect, but I'm afraid every study may generate a trail of misunderstandings.
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Do you think some day we will nail down what causes the overdispersion?
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Yup. Here's a paper on a common cold coronavirus outbreak in a care home, with 3 fatalities. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/24/10/18-0862_article …
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Also this nursing home study should find out who had compromised immune systems and find out the positive rate from that.
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I appreciate your persistence fighting the good fight here! I'm personally exhausted by the negativity. Just tired of screaming.
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