To understand why this is encouraging vaccine news, note that this is a *cluster* (overdispersed pathogen) *among the elderly* (vulnerable population) *who live together* (allows high attack rate). So way worse scenario compared with trials but vaccines *still* highly protective.https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1384968364460843016 …
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I saw people deduce that this may imply weaker efficacy compared with the trial. That's not a thing we can conclude with a small breakthrough investigation but we can look at this as a case with really encouraging results. Nursing homes have fatalities from common cold outbreaks.
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Here's the confidence interval calculation from the paper (though still note that this is an efficacy calculation for the elderly nursing home population in the same congregate setting, different than the trial population which was much younger and indepedent). CI is 65.6-94.7%.pic.twitter.com/9ONzXT9t5g
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I wrote a post for my newsletter, to try to explain why that particular study of a nursing home outbreak that affected even the vaccinated was really encouraging news. It's also an example of why we need more than "just the facts" to be better informed.https://www.theinsight.org/p/facts-are-pieces-of-a-puzzle-not/comments …
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My post on why that study of a nursing home outbreak in this thread that affected even the vaccinated was, in fact, encouraging news. It's also an example of why we need more than "just the facts" to be better informed. (Repost with the correct link.
)https://www.theinsight.org/p/facts-are-pieces-of-a-puzzle-not …Show this thread
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