To understand why this is encouraging vaccine news, note that this is a *cluster* (overdispersed pathogen) *among the elderly* (vulnerable population) *who live together* (allows high attack rate). So way worse scenario compared with trials but vaccines *still* highly protective.https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1384968364460843016 …
-
-
Also: we can't directly compare efficacy from a *cluster among the elderly in a congregate setting* with a vaccine trial where participants aren't all living together and oversampled from the elderly. Even, if you concocted this, you'd find both in the same confidence interval.
Show this thread -
I saw people deduce that this may imply weaker efficacy compared with the trial. That's not a thing we can conclude with a small breakthrough investigation but we can look at this as a case with really encouraging results. Nursing homes have fatalities from common cold outbreaks.
Show this thread -
Here's the confidence interval calculation from the paper (though still note that this is an efficacy calculation for the elderly nursing home population in the same congregate setting, different than the trial population which was much younger and indepedent). CI is 65.6-94.7%.pic.twitter.com/9ONzXT9t5g
Show this thread -
I wrote a post for my newsletter, to try to explain why that particular study of a nursing home outbreak that affected even the vaccinated was really encouraging news. It's also an example of why we need more than "just the facts" to be better informed.https://www.theinsight.org/p/facts-are-pieces-of-a-puzzle-not/comments …
Show this thread -
My post on why that study of a nursing home outbreak in this thread that affected even the vaccinated was, in fact, encouraging news. It's also an example of why we need more than "just the facts" to be better informed. (Repost with the correct link.
)https://www.theinsight.org/p/facts-are-pieces-of-a-puzzle-not …Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Do you think public figures wearing masks after being vaccinated affects the general public’s confidence in vaccines?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.