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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Apr 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Bill Hanage

      To understand why this is encouraging vaccine news, note that this is a *cluster* (overdispersed pathogen) *among the elderly* (vulnerable population) *who live together* (allows high attack rate). So way worse scenario compared with trials but vaccines *still* highly protective.https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1384968364460843016 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Bill HanageVerified account @BillHanage
      An outbreak involving a variant with 484K in a vulnerable vaccinated population still showed *very* strong (86.5%) protection against symptomatic illness. This is *very* good news, and should build further confidence in vaccination https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7017e2.htm?s_cid=mm7017e2_w …
      17 replies 633 retweets 2,173 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Apr 2021

      I know the overdispersion can be hard to wrap one's mind around, but it's a crucial feature of this pandemic: it produces these clusters where lots of people get infected in contrast with those many cases (likely vast majority) where people don't seem to transmit onwards at all.

      1 reply 18 retweets 209 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Apr 2021

      So when we look at vaccine efficacy against symptomatic disease in a *cluster* among *the elderly* in a *congregate setting* with a variant that worried us and see numbers this high: it's encouraging. Always, always, always: details matter in evaluating these studies.

      4 replies 22 retweets 291 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Apr 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted 𝒐𝒉 𝒃𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓

      Yes, this is exactly what the study is telling us (plus this was a variant that had caused worry!). Raw numbers without context, or trial/cluster efficacy comparisons without also considering the underlying distribution aren't that informative.https://twitter.com/botheritall/status/1384985382597533700 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      𝒐𝒉 𝒃𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓 @botheritall
      86.5% effective against even getting _symptoms_ in a super high risk group living in close quarters! I can't wait to get vaccinated! https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1384982379962458112 …
      Show this thread
      3 replies 32 retweets 258 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Apr 2021

      It is very important to study breakthrough cases, even if rare, and sequence them so we can keep an eye on what’s going on. Lab studies can only tell us so much. I just hope every such study doesn’t cause unnecessary alarms. This one showed particularly solid encouraging news.

      2:53 PM - 21 Apr 2021
      • 10 Retweets
      • 174 Likes
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      2 replies 10 retweets 174 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Apr 2021

          Also: we can't directly compare efficacy from a *cluster among the elderly in a congregate setting* with a vaccine trial where participants aren't all living together and oversampled from the elderly. Even, if you concocted this, you'd find both in the same confidence interval.

          1 reply 7 retweets 90 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Apr 2021

          I saw people deduce that this may imply weaker efficacy compared with the trial. That's not a thing we can conclude with a small breakthrough investigation but we can look at this as a case with really encouraging results. Nursing homes have fatalities from common cold outbreaks.

          7 replies 11 retweets 139 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 21 Apr 2021

          Here's the confidence interval calculation from the paper (though still note that this is an efficacy calculation for the elderly nursing home population in the same congregate setting, different than the trial population which was much younger and indepedent). CI is 65.6-94.7%.pic.twitter.com/9ONzXT9t5g

          1 reply 4 retweets 58 likes
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        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 22 Apr 2021

          I wrote a post for my newsletter, to try to explain why that particular study of a nursing home outbreak that affected even the vaccinated was really encouraging news. It's also an example of why we need more than "just the facts" to be better informed.https://www.theinsight.org/p/facts-are-pieces-of-a-puzzle-not/comments …

          7 replies 23 retweets 112 likes
          Show this thread
        6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 22 Apr 2021

          My post on why that study of a nursing home outbreak in this thread that affected even the vaccinated was, in fact, encouraging news. It's also an example of why we need more than "just the facts" to be better informed. (Repost with the correct link.🙄)https://www.theinsight.org/p/facts-are-pieces-of-a-puzzle-not …

          6 replies 27 retweets 87 likes
          Show this thread
        7. End of conversation
        1. Arjun Moorthy‏ @juicemoorthy 21 Apr 2021
          Replying to @zeynep

          Do you think public figures wearing masks after being vaccinated affects the general public’s confidence in vaccines?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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