Crazy idea but if we were actually MORE stringent about NPI for a short period while we vaccinate rapidly, cases would drop more quickly and facilitate a full reopening sooner instead of just grinding along as we’ve been doing
-
Show this thread
-
Replying to @notdred
More than a year into a pandemic, one ends up still explaining exponential threats, now you think we can consider exponential decay in how we respond? That's too easy. We must make it *harder* for ourselves over a longer period of time to earn it.
3 replies 3 retweets 61 likes -
You actually pointed out the *huge* benefit of coupling NPIs and vaccines in the UK data. We currently have 5.5 times more deaths each day per capita in the US. That's around *7,000* excess deaths in the US each week! https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1384224941353029641?s=20 …pic.twitter.com/rOjxDyNL8S
1 reply 5 retweets 7 likes -
Replying to @svscarpino @notdred
Yeah, we're doing subpar to be honest, compared to what we could have done given our supply with a genuinely short-term but drastic upping of NPIs right as we ramped up vaccination. Road not taken. Exponential processes are so hard to communicate/understand.
3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes -
Arguably more important is figuring out whether you're right that a big piece of the UK's success was delaying second doses. Would be a critical strategy internationally (especially if you* could convince govts to couple with NPIs during delay). *hopefully you would have help.
2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @svscarpino @notdred
Yes, so frustrating that we did not get the trial we were advocating for (exactly because we have a world to vaccinate and exponential dynamics means this question matters a lot!). Much harder to convincingly distangle after the fact. But coupling=supercharging. Not understood.
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
I listen to a podcast called, "coupling=supercharging. Not understood."
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
I have written so many versions of "exponentials matter" pieces last year... Alternating with "distributions matter" pieces lolsob. They appear to be a bunch of different topics, sure, but it feels like this:pic.twitter.com/mRbby7gb6Z
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.