I want to add two things that I see confused/claimed. First, see this thread and the paper itself where we explicitly discuss whether the predominance of close contact transmission implies gravity-driven droplet transmission is primary or even a lot.https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1383370706843410433 …
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This paper looks at totality of observed data and evidence from past year, and argues why aerosol-transmission as primary route can parsimoniously explain it all, while droplets as primary route contradicts key parts of the evidence. I'd love to read the opposite case if written.
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Second: I keep seeing claims that if it's aerosols, that means cloth or surgical masks are useless, and also what's called "droplet precautions" are useless. The aerosol experts have written so many papers on why that's not the case, and, in any case, that's not what we observe.
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The paper, while word-limited, does go into both of these topics, but as with any shift like this, I agree the implications deserves more attention/explanation, and hopefully more soon, partly because part of the problem were some flawed assumptions in multiple directions.
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And, this doesn't bind my co-authors, but I think our evidence-base is stronger for discriminating between droplets vs. aerosols, but not as much for fomites especially through resuspension etc. No, not washing groceries but.. I'd wipe down high-touch surfaces in crowded indoors.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Борис Баденов
We briefly address this (word limit!
) but it's not correct to assume that airborne transmission necessitates either a high R0 like measles or even a uniform transmission pattern. Tuberculosis is airborne but has lowish R0—but likely also overdispersion!https://twitter.com/bobby_dread/status/1383787373134184450 …zeynep tufekci added,
Борис Баденов @BorisBadenov999Replying to @zeynep @jljcoloradoWhat lesson, may I ask, stems from the Diamond Princess cruise ship then, relating to your findings? If indoor aerosol transmission is predominant, why didn’t everyone get it? T-cell immunity & co-morbidity factors? Thank you. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess … pic.twitter.com/nmDPZsBnTd4 replies 5 retweets 57 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Linsey Marr
Another good addition for people following this topic is Dr.
@linseymarr, a true pioneer in this field (her latest in@bmj_latest, also out this week(!), was titled "Covid-19 has redefined airborne transmission").https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1382842521286549508 …zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Linsey Marr
And just putting this thread here so people can get some context of how difficult it has been, for so long, to make progress.https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1383066390136041477 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Linsey MarrVerified account @linseymarrReplying to @zeynep @j_g_allen and 4 othersYES! Welcome to my world for the past 13 years. So incredibly at odds with current scientific understanding! I have been going around saying that the medical textbooks are wrong, and people think I'm weird...which I am.2 replies 9 retweets 83 likesShow this thread -
Feels like an inflection point. Do read what the article linked by Dr. Karan argues: that short-range (close contact) transmission of respiratory infections is also PRIMARILY aerosols—goes against decades of claims of aerosols only/mostly being long-range. https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1384240928873844742 …pic.twitter.com/xvf2bQeES8
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Replying to @zeynep
This is why many of us are in favor of doing away with most of the terminology altogether and sticking to respiratory transmission.
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A terminology update might help. Important to get the right size established though, because it has a lot of implications and helps correct errors. (Droplets precautions aren’t useless, for example, but don’t imply dominance of >100 micron particles propelled by gravity).
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Replying to @zeynep @AaronRichterman
(I’m inundated now with mail from places like India and Turkey that are going through major surges that are being met with plexiglass, closing parks, curfews, little to no mention of ventilation... Distance is seen as binary, as one would assume with gravity-propelled droplets.)
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Replying to @zeynep
Wont argue abt lots of effort being spent on inefficient transmission prevention with little to no marginal benefit. Isn’t one point, though, that most respiratory viral transmission through same inhalational mechanism? +/- contact component & w varying efficiencies at distance?
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