Crazy idea but if we were actually MORE stringent about NPI for a short period while we vaccinate rapidly, cases would drop more quickly and facilitate a full reopening sooner instead of just grinding along as we’ve been doing
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Also, for additional fun, why not unleash a debate on whether it is vaccines or lockdowns that cause drops? It's not like there were a gazillion explainers on herd immunity last year on when things are transmissible, those things would interact with effects beyond the vaccinated.
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I don’t think many people understand exponential decay at all. Even if they understand exponential growth. And very few people are talking about it when we look at graphs like these.
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To be fair, nobody official is really making the case to the public. I’ve never once heard anyone in a position of authority talk about optimizing endgame strategies. It’s usually something like “we’ll reopen when it’s safe”
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You actually pointed out the *huge* benefit of coupling NPIs and vaccines in the UK data. We currently have 5.5 times more deaths each day per capita in the US. That's around *7,000* excess deaths in the US each week! https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1384224941353029641?s=20 …pic.twitter.com/rOjxDyNL8S
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Yeah, we're doing subpar to be honest, compared to what we could have done given our supply with a genuinely short-term but drastic upping of NPIs right as we ramped up vaccination. Road not taken. Exponential processes are so hard to communicate/understand.
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